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Thousands of homebuyers in ‘leasehold limbo’

Thousands of homebuyers could still be “sleepwalking into leasehold limbo” despite the government’s pledge to ban new-build leasehold houses, a property expert has said.

In December 2017 then communities secretary Sajid Javid had pledged to end the “exploitation of homebuyers through unnecessary leaseholds” by legislating to prevent the sale of new-build leasehold houses except where necessary, such as shared ownership.

In July this year current communities secretary James Brokenshire put further weight behind the pledge, promising to to tackle “unfair and abusive” practices within the current leasehold system and cease funding of “unjustified” leasehold houses through government schemes.

But one year on from Mr Javid’s initial announcement, it has been claimed developers have continued to sell thousands of new-build houses with leaseholds – some believed to be funded via the Help to Buy scheme.

Phil Spencer, co-founder of property advice site Move iQ, said: “A year on from the government’s pledge to ban the sale of new build leasehold houses, thousands of buyers are still being allowed to sleepwalk into leasehold limbo.

“And in a further ironic twist, many are even being encouraged to do so by the Help to Buy scheme.”

The firm’s analysis of Land Registry figures showed 26,024 new-build properties have been sold with leaseholds since the government’s pledge last December, 2,644 of which were houses.

Data from the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government showed 5,949 leasehold homes were bought with assistance from the Help to Buy scheme in the first six months of this year- 1,340 were houses.

Mr Spencer said: “Millions of Britons live happily in leasehold homes. But anyone buying a leasehold property needs to do so with their eyes wide open, and should take legal advice to understand the obligations that go with owning a home this way.

“While leasehold tenure is normal for flats, the government says it is determined to stop newly built houses being sold in this way – while at the same time offering Help to Buy incentives. These mixed messages are deeply confusing.”

Mr Spencer said when the ban is introduced there should be some redress for the thousands who have bought leasehold houses.

He said: “At the very least they should be given first refusal on the freehold of their home at a reasonable rate, before it is sold on to a third party.”

The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government has recently launched a technical consultation on how to implement reforms to the leasehold system, which shut at the end of November.

It is now considering next steps with a view to bringing forward legislation in due course.

A spokesperson said: “It’s unacceptable for home buyers to be exploited through unnecessary leaseholds on new houses.

“We have announced measures to ban leaseholds for all new build houses unless there is a genuine reason, and ensure ground rents on new long leases are set to a peppercorn.”

It is understood that development contracts in place until March 2021 prevent the introduction of an outright ban on the sale of leasehold houses or setting terms around ground rents without giving risk to legal challenge.

But the government said: “We have been clear in telling developers that Help to Buy funding should not be used for leasehold houses, and recent statistics show this practice is already reducing.”

Source: FT Adviser

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UK mortgage approvals show first annual rise in 14 months – UK Finance

A decline in the number of mortgages approved by British high-street banks flattened out last month, with the first year-on-year rise since September 2017, figures from industry group UK Finance showed on Friday.

Britain’s housing market has slowed since the country voted to leave the European Union in June 2016, and other surveys this month have shown anxiety among consumers and businesses ahead of the planned departure on March 29.

Friday’s data showed British banks approved 39,403 mortgages for house purchase in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, down from 39,640 in October but up by 0.2 percent from November 2017 — the first annual rise in 14 months.

“The housing market is struggling for momentum in the face of still relatively limited consumer purchasing power, fragile consumer confidence and, possibly, wariness over higher interest rates,” Howard Archer, chief economist at consultants EY ITEM Club, said.

Many economists expect house prices to be flat or marginally higher next year, as weakness in London and surrounding areas weighs on faster price growth in other parts of Britain, though the Bank of England has said falls of as much as a third are possible if Brexit descends into chaos.

Prime Minister Theresa May’s minority government plans to seek parliamentary approval for her Brexit deal in the week starting Jan. 14, after scrapping a vote before Christmas due to opposition from lawmakers of all parties.

Without a deal, Britain faces major economic disruption from the reintroduction of tariffs and customs checks at its borders.

UK Finance said credit card lending picked up slightly last month, though this mostly reflected a shift in preferred payment means rather than higher borrowing, with credit cards offering better consumer protection for purchases such as holiday travel.

Net lending to non-financial businesses fell by the most since May, dropping by 656 million pounds ($829 million).

“Overall lending to businesses has remained subdued in this period of economic uncertainty,” UK Finance’s managing director for commercial finance, Stephen Pegge, said.

The Bank of England will publish November mortgage and consumer credit data from a wider range of lenders on Jan. 4.

Source: UK Reuters

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Looking to the future

2018 was certainly a year of uncertainty in the UK so it comes as no surprise to see a knock-on effect on the property market that’s experiencing sluggish house purchase activity and slowing house price growth.

Property investors could therefore be forgiven for operating with understandable caution given the current political and economic climate.

So putting Brexit aside for one moment, property investors face an anxious January waiting for this year’s heavier tax bill to land on the doormat as Osborne’s tax changes really begin to bite.

Many professional landlords have already taken steps to limit their tax exposure by moving their portfolios into a limited company structure; however, it is still a huge burden on landlords looking to expand their portfolios.

These tax changes heighten the importance of yield of for professional landlords with many of them already looking further afield to access higher yields and some diversifying into HMOs, commercial and semi-commercial property.

These are also potential pockets of the property sector still growing substantially and may even benefit from a slowdown in other areas. For example, the bridging market has expanded over recent years with new lenders entering and new products being introduced to the market.

This substantial growth in the bridging market is reflected in the Association of Short Term Lenders (ASTL)’s quarterly results, showing that the number of loans written by its members had grown 21.2% in the 12-month period to 30 September 2018.

Brokers have also identified it as an area of growth. In the latter part of 2018, our research found that 70% of brokers believed that demand for bridging had risen. By comparison, only 8% thought it had fallen.

Many put this rise in demand for bridging down to property sales taking longer to complete leading to more developers requiring exit finance, more buy-to-let investors undertaking refurbishment and increased demand for purchasing properties at auction.

Like investors, brokers are increasingly turning to bridging, advising on cases and looking to diversify their revenue streams. Indeed, 65% of brokers stated that as bridging cases involve higher fees they present an opportunity to generate extra income.

When looking ahead in 2019, 12 times as many brokers expect demand for bridging to grow rather than shrink (62% vs 5%), making it a key growth area this year.

Brokers who predicted increased demand put some of the reasons down to rising house prices, slower sales of property developments, increased investors at property auctions and growing demand from buy-to-let investors.

With the demand for bridging increasing within a sluggish property market, we will continue to see more lenders stepping into the bridging market, increasing competition and improving rates. However, with lots of lenders offering similar products, brokers will really need to be aware of all the alternative financing options in the market.

For some brokers it can seem like a daunting and complicated market but through developing good relationships with specialist business development managers (BDMs), flexible solutions can be found.

BDMs are best placed to inform on product availability and appropriate criteria as well as offering flexible tailored advice.

As the bridging market continues to expand in an uncertain wider property market, BDMs will be able to familiarise brokers with all the products currently on offer and help navigate the more complex cases, ultimately providing the best solution for the client.

Source: Mortgage Introducer

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Pound Sterling to Rise by 5% against the U.S. Dollar in 2019 says Lloyds Bank

The Britsh Pound will rise by more than 5% against the U.S. Dollar next year, according to analysts at Lloyds Bank, as an orderly exit from the EU enables the Bank of England(BoE) to lift its interest rate again just as the Federal Reserve (Fed) brings its own tightening cycle to a close.

Pound Sterling will be volatile until the end of the first-quarter 2019, the bank says, as markets fret over whether Prime Minister Theresa May will be able to pass her Withdrawal Agreement through parliament. However, ratification of the deal early next year is forecast to see the UK exit the EU in an orderly manner.

That should enable markets and the Bank of England to address mounting inflation pressures in the economy, where a falling unemployment rate has been encouraging wage growth for workers. The BoE has already flagged this repeatedly as a likely threat to its 2% inflation target over coming years.

“The BoE has been clear in its guidance, reiterating that, should the economy progress in line with its expectations, a gradual tightening of monetary conditions would be appropriate. There is broad agreement on the MPC that this is consistent with a 25bp rate hike per year over the next three years,” says Gajan Mahadevan, a strategist at Lloyds Bank.

Mahadevan says the BoE will raise the base rate again in August 2019, taking it up to 1%, after PM May is succesful in passing her Withdrawal Agreement through the House of Commons. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to ease off on its tightening of monetary policy.

“Among key developed market economies, the US has been the outperformer for some time. Having hit an annualised rate of 4.2% in Q2, GDP growth slowed in Q3 to a still impressive 3.5%,” Mahadevan writes. “However, there are signs that the rises in interest rates over the course of the last few years are starting to take their toll.”

Mahadevan and the Lloyds team say the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates only twice in 2019 as earlier policy tightening takes its toll on the US economy, leading the central bank to bring its multi-year cycle of interest rate hikes to a close. That would mark a turning point for the U.S. Dollar, especially against the Pound.

If the Fed stops raising its interest rate at the same times as markets are becoming willing to bet more confidently on further BoE policy tightening over coming years then it could effectively pull the rug out from beneath the U.S. Dollar.

The Fed raised its interest rate to 2.5% last week, marking its fourth rate hike of 2018, but used its so-called dot plot to signal that it will raise rates on only two occassions next year.

The Dollar index has risen by 5.2% in 2018 after reversing what was once a 4% year-to-date loss wracked up mostly during the first quarter. A superior performance from the U.S. economy was behind the move, because it enabled the Fed to raise rates as economies elsewhere slowed and their respective central banks sat on their hands.

“We expect the currency pair to rally towards 1.35 by June 2019, before settling around 1.33 at year-end. However, the high degree of uncertainty, particularly around the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, means that at this stage our conviction is low,” Mahadevan writes, in a recent note to clients.

Mahadevan’s target of 1.33 for the Pound-to-Dollar rate at the end of 2019 implies a 5.1% increase from Thursday’s 1.2657 level. However, while Sterling may easily recover lost ground from the Dollar before the end of 2019, other analysts have warned that steep losses could be likely before March 2019 comes to a close.

“We will enter 2019 with the most important aspects of the Brexit situation still unresolved. December was an enormously bad month for Theresa May,” says Stephen Gallo, European head of FX strategy at BMO. “To the detriment of the GBP, the remaining Brexit permutations appear to be declining in number.”

Prime Minister Theresa May survived a leadership challenge in December but she still lacks enough support in parliament for her Brexit Withdrawal Agreement to make it onto the statute book.

Analysts and traders have been readying themselves for a seemingly inevitable defeat of the government when the House of Commons gets its “meaningful vote” on the Withdrawal Agreement in January.

Lawmakers on all sides of the House have pledged to vote against the proposals for a variety of reasons and the PM is currently expected to lose the ballot in the Commons.

Approval before March 29, 2019 is key if the UK is to avoid leaving the EU without any preferable arrangements in March 2019 and defaulting to trading with the bloc on WTO terms.

“The first permutation is a “hard Brexit” in which the UK legally exits the EU on March 29th without a deal, forcing the country to revert to WTO rules. We would assign a 45% probability to that outcome at this stage and assume a level of $1.20 in GBPUSD if that comes to pass,” Gallo writes, in a note to clients.

Source: Pound Sterling Live

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Breaking down the lending barriers

Peer-to-peer lending may not be a familiar part of an adviser’s arsenal, but interest in the area is on the rise and the industry’s overall growth rates add weight to its suggestion that it is moving into the mainstream.

However, a recent paper by the FCA that has suggested consumers are at risk of harm shows there is work to be done to convince more advisers of its merits.

At its heart, P2P is a way of for consumers to lend money to companies and individuals – via platforms, which either set interest rates themselves (the most common method, as Table 1 shows) or allow consumers to do so.

The attraction is that these rates are typically substantially higher than can be found elsewhere. But as always, the greater yields come at the expense of higher risk of default, and P2P is not covered by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme.

For intermediaries, such lending might provide a useful option when catering for clients with short-term time horizons, such as one to three years, in cases where equities pose too much of a risk to capital and cash is unable to match inflation.

The sector’s relative infancy has meant the number of advisers dipping their toes in remains fairly small. But providers say they are starting to see a notable uptick in intermediaries using P2P for client recommendations.

“A few years ago very few financial advisers were using [P2P]. But we’ve now got 1,100 advisers registered on the platform, and adding more and more every day,” says Sam Handfield-Jones, chief product officer at Octopus, who adds his company’s loan book has grown to in excess of £250m.

“They range from advisers having 10, 20, 40, 50 clients on [the platform], through to advisers using it to solve really specific problems or one or two clients, so it’s still massively varied as to how it’s used.”

Nathan Mead-Wellings, director at London-based advice firm Finura Partners, says more clients are starting to broach the subject. “There is an interest among the higher net worth to get into the lending space where they have reasonable knowledge of asset-backed lending in particular,” he says.

“Familiarity with larger platforms such as Ratesetter is also filtering down. These clients are often prepared to view these as high-risk investments and are aware that they lack FSCS protection.”

Growth and responsibility

Growth in the sector has certainly been eye-catching. Data compiled by the UK Peer2Peer Finance Association shows cumulative lending had risen to nearly £9bn in the first quarter of 2018, a jump of more than 50 per cent from the second quarter of 2017. Almost two-thirds of this lending was shared between two providers – Funding Circle and Zopa, the longest running P2P platform.

Greater regulation is inevitable in any new sector that starts to gain popularity with consumers. Back in 2016, FCA chief executive Andrew Bailey remarked of P2P: “It’s a fast-moving, evolving industry. Some of the directions in which it’s going are posing some quite big challenges in terms of transparency and fairness.

“Those are the things that we’ll be considering when it comes to the point of proposing and making rules. We always try to balance innovation and competition against having a fair and transparent environment.”

Two years later, in July 2018, the watchdog subsequently unveiled a 156-page consultation paper in a bid to address potential problems in the space.

The regulator identified poor business practices, particularly on some P2P platforms. These related to “disclosure of information to clients, charging structures, wind-down arrangements and record keeping”, it said.

The report also highlighted a number of potential and ongoing harms that may impact investors, such as poor quality or unsuitable products, poor treatment of customers, and high prices.

Gonçalo de Vasconcelos, chief executive at crowdfunding platform SyndicateRoom, says the real surprise was a proposed clampdown on promotional activity by P2P providers.

Investors in the space could now face the same kind of marketing restrictions that already apply to the investment-based crowdfunding sector. These require providers to ensure they only target their promotions at advisers or sophisticated/wealthy investors, or else those who certify they will not invest more than 10 per cent of their assets in “readily realisable” securities.

Mr de Vasconcelos says: “The changes to the P2P sector were mostly unnecessary and slightly over the top. The unintended consequence, or perhaps intended, is that everyday investors see P2P as this spooky, dangerous thing that it isn’t – just look at the track record of the main P2P platforms for more than 10 years now.”

But some say this track record is rightly treated with scepticism.

Mr Mead-Wellings says: “It can be hard to run due diligence on the different platforms and understand the default rates/profitability and so on, but mostly [the issue] is that few have been tested in a downturn. It would be interesting to see what the average credit profile of their borrowers and lenders is.”

Mr Handfield-Jones adds: “Advisers are where they should be, cautious about adopting new things. They have an obligation to protect their clients’ money and the sector is 11 to 12 years old – so it’s still new.”

Mr Vasconcelos concedes the example of an adviser who took an interest in one of his company’s products, but ultimately would not show it to clients because it lacked a three-year track record.

He says: “It’s not worth them running the risk due to regulatory reasons. The two main barriers for advisers to get involved are lack of knowledge and being risk-adverse. The most sophisticated advisers are on it, but it’s still a very small percentage of the market.”

The task for providers is to assess how the industry can evolve in an adviser-friendly way.

Medical attraction

Another obstacle to more advisers and consumers embracing the asset class is accessibility. Mr Handfield-Jones says encouraging more self-invested personal pension providers to permit P2P investments is one of Octopus’s key aims.

Just two providers are currently on board, and regulators’ growing suspicion of unregulated investments held within Sipps may mean others are reluctant to take the plunge. But Mr Handfield-Jones notes those in the decumulation phase often seek to access parts of their money on a number of different time horizons, a preference he says can chime with P2P.

He explains: “An adviser will rarely recommend equity exposure on a sub three-year time horizon, yet if you’re buying multi-asset funds and selling them down to fund income in decumulation, you’re effectively buying equities and selling them down on a sub-three year. But because it’s wrapped up in the multi-asset fund it’s not so obvious.

“When you’re talking about portfolio construction, decumulation and income drawdown, maintaining that capital within your Sipp wrapper is an important part of that and will be the big switch to [push P2P lending into the] mainstream.”

Providers also claim advisers may end up using P2P to support client objectives in relation to their businesses.

Mr Handfield-Jones says he has seen a sharp rise in medical workers, such as doctors and dentists, who fund private work through a limited company, investing the business’s capital into P2P.

“They don’t want to take out the dividends and pay dividend tax, but if you’ve got a company bank account with a high street bank you’re going to be earning negative interest. So the idea of putting your balance sheet to work a bit harder is quite appealing,” he says.

As ever, ensuring that all clients’ eggs are not in one basket will be paramount in such situations.

Losing interest

One initiative that was previously predicted as a game changer for P2P was the Innovative Finance Isa. Introduced in April 2016, the IFISA enabled peer-to-peer lending to be accessed in a tax-efficient wrapper for the first time. Rates on offer from such propositions extended all the way up to 13 per cent, suggesting the risks involved in P2P may be greater than some claim.

Take-up rates began at very low levels, but £290m was invested during the 2017-18 tax year, a sharp uptick on the £36m invested in the Isa’s first 12 months of existence.

Mr Handfield-Jones says: “The first year was a little bit underwhelming. The year just gone has been much stronger, and we expect this year to be double or triple what we did last year.”

He adds the first-year results could largely be attributed to the lack of providers in the market. Low savings rates remain the most obvious way in which providers can attract investors, especially as cash Isas can be transferred without the need for new funds to be committed. But consumer’s love affair with cash, regardless of its suitability, is proving difficult to change.

“You’re seeing solid adoption, but in the context of seeing £40bn into cash Isas it’s still a drop in the ocean. And that’s where the opportunity is – you’re talking about hundreds of millions of pounds of lost interest in the UK,” Mr Handfield-Jones adds.

That is a problem faced by the investment industry more generally. But with lending platforms having yet to experience real hardship, the question of whether P2P is a suitable replacement may not be answered until the next economic downturn.

Source: FT Adviser

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Company directors’ optimism in UK economy plunges on Brexit fears

BUSINESS leaders’ confidence in the UK economy has tumbled to its lowest for more than 18 months as Brexit fears dominate, a poll by the Institute of Directors reveals.

The poll of 724 company directors, conducted between December 5 and 20 and published today, shows business leaders in all nations and regions of the UK are pessimistic over the economic outlook on a 12-month view.

The IoD noted that its confidence tracker showed overall optimism about the economy had recovered to be in positive territory briefly earlier this year, boosted by the initial agreement of a Brexit transition period. But the IoD flagged the fact that business leaders’ optimism over the UK economy had fallen steadily since April.

Tej Parikh, senior economist at the IoD, said: “Business leaders are looking ahead to the new year with trepidation about the economy. While we saw cautious optimism emerging when the Brexit talks appeared to be moving towards a transition period after March 2019, that has utterly dissipated now. There can be no doubt that the tumultuous Brexit process is having a damaging impact on firms’ outlooks. The prospect of a no-deal in the near future will be weighing heavily on directors’ minds.”

He added: “Politicians must not forget that every day of Brexit confusion is a day we aren’t focused on the long term. Leaving the EU has consumed the political agenda since the referendum, deflecting attention from critical challenges we face, including boosting growth across the UK and addressing widening skills gaps.”

The IoD noted investment would likely remain subdued. It flagged its finding that, subtracting the proportion expecting to cut investment from that planning to increase capital expenditure, only a net seven per cent of business leaders anticipate a rise.

Mr Parikh said: “Uncertainty is already causing businesses to delay investment, hiring decisions and product launches, which also acts to weaken our international competitiveness further down the line. The longer this state of affairs continues, the more we lose by it, even if these effects aren’t apparent in the here and now.”

The IoD observed business leaders nevertheless remained relatively upbeat about the prospects for their own firms.

Source: Herald Scotland

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The five-year plan to tackle homelessness in Coventry

Growing concerns about the number of homeless people in Coventry are being tackled in a new five-year plan developed by the city council.

From 2013/14 to 2017/18 just over 5,000 approached the council because they were homeless or threatened with homelessness.

The main reasons for homelessness included a family relationship breakdown (29 per cent), end of private rented tenancy (28 per cent in 2017/18) and the violent breakdown of a relationship (13 per cent).

The council’s Housing and Homelessness Strategy 2019-2024 highlights the need to reduce the number of people in temporary accommodation, and provide enough affordable homes.

It also pledges to develop a ‘partnership approach to street homelessness’, bring empty homes back into use and improve maintenance of all rented properties – which makes up 25 per cent of housing in Coventry.

Housing shortage

Latest figures indicate that nationally only around 160-165,000 new house are being built every year – well short of the government’s target to build 300,000 new homes a year.

At a scrutiny meeting this week, cabinet member for housing Councillor Ed Ruane said: “It is not rocket science – we need to build more homes and we need to be less timid when people object to house building.

“We need to be building houses at a much quicker rate than what we are.”

 

Mark Andrews, planning and housing policy manager, added: “There has been a real reference to making sure we do not just deliver affordable houses, but genuinely affordable homes.

“We are thinking about what is affordable to Mr and Mrs Coventry.”

Temporary accommodation

Coventry City Council no longer owns any council housing after the stock was transferred to Whitefriars Housing Group in 2000.

But it is looking at ways to get homeless people into more suited temporary accommodation and recently agreed to enter into a £1.7m lease to place them into Caradoc Hall as just one measure.

 Caradoc Hall
Caradoc Hall

The council’s last contract for homelessness and ex-offenders accommodation and support was awarded to The Salvation Army in April 2014, which was worth £9.1m.

It is due to be re-commissioned when it comes to an end in April, but the council has been urged to rethink this.

Louise Morley, from the Experts by Experience group, said: “We are discussing the possibility of multiple homelessness providers within the city.

“Currently it is the Salvation Army and that’s the choice. Once you have been thrown out of the Salvation Army you are back on the streets.”

Kate Still, West Midlands Housing Group’s chief operating officer added: “There is no single organisation in the city than can meet the full needs of homelessness. It is very diverse.”

Women on the streets

Calls were also made for stand-alone support for women who end up on the streets due to abuse.

Ms Morley added: “We would also like to see some provision for women as well. If you have been subject to any kind of abuse it is currently not fit for purpose.”

A consultation ended on December 18 and will be presented to cabinet and council for approval in February.

By Tom Davis, Local Democracy Reporter

Source: Coventry Telegraph

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Where are the best investment opportunities for 2019?

With 2019 fast approaching, we asked some of the UK’s leading fund managers to highlight the stocks they are watching closely and to share their outlooks for the new year.

As 2018 draws to a close, there is much to feel nervous about.

The UK is set to leave the European Union in March 2019 and a deal is yet to be agreed; investors have experienced a profound sell-off over the past few months; trade tensions have escalated between the US and China; and the global economy appears to be cooling.

“Global growth is getting harder, with the trade war having a particular impact on China. The US too is finding growth more difficult, as the Trump stimulus package wanes,” explained Jeremy Lang, manager of the Ardevora UK Equity fund.

“There was nowhere to hide for investors in the recent market sell-off, as traditional areas of shelter did not provide any safety,” he added.

Lang suspects that 2019 will be much like 2018, with the market experiencing “many wild mood swings”.

UK outlook

When it comes to the UK market, he notes there appears to be “more palpable gloom and little optimism”.

“This undoubtedly drives strong investor desire for overseas earners.

We are now enticed by areas of the market most other investors hate, as there are increasing odds of a surprisingly benign outcome.

“While still small, the odds of another referendum and a remain verdict are far better than they were weeks ago. Even if we were to see a second referendum, there are going to be a number of hurdles and pockets of anxiety along the way,” he explained.

With this in mind, Lang and co-manager William Pattisson have reduced their fund’s exposure to commodity stocks which earn a large proportion of their earnings overseas.

“We used the proceeds to buy into more domestically-focused value opportunities, such as Travis Perkins,” he added.

Ken Wotton, manager of the LF Gresham House Multi Cap Income fund, notes that Brexit is likely to cause further volatility in the UK market. Nevertheless, investors must remember that this will create selective opportunities.

“While large-cap businesses are generally impacted by macro factors, the agility and niche positioning of smaller companies may allow them to react positively to broader economic headwinds,” he said.

He believes Inspired Energy, which provides energy advisory services, is poised for strong performance in 2019.

“While it advises mid-sized corporations, Inspired Energy is paid in commission from contracts with large energy suppliers, with payments based on the energy usage companies incur. This guarantees multi-year revenue and high earnings visibility for the business,” Wotton said.

Phil Harris, manager of the EdenTree UK Equity Growth fund, notes that the unforeseen variables and endgame scenarios surrounding Brexit may feel like attempting to play “three-dimensional chess”.

In spite of the political headwinds, he is encouraged that the UK economy has so far proven robust.

“With sentiment at multi-year lows and UK valuations reflecting this, we expect to find multiple opportunities across the UK small and mid-cap space for us to deploy our current high levels of cash,” Harris explained.

Better opportunities elsewhere

David Coombs, who manages the Rathbone Multi-Asset Portfolio range, and assistant manager Will McIntosh-Whyte note that Brexit has so far divided the nation and slashed the amount that businesses have invested here.

“Yet the UK has muddled through so far. Wages are rising, albeit slowly, retail sales were okay despite some high-profile high street failures and business surveys remain in expansionary territory. We don’t think the UK is doomed, but we see better investments elsewhere,” the managers explained.

Looking ahead, as central banks around the world tighten monetary policy, the managers suspect that share prices will come under pressure.

“That’s just the way valuations work: as the rate you get for taking zero risk goes up, the value for risky cash flows goes down. While this will likely cause another bumpy year for stock markets, it does come with benefits.

“Government bond yields are returning to levels where they should offer better protection for portfolios. And for rates to rise, that’s usually because countries are growing and deflation is out of the picture,” they added.

Against this backdrop, Coombs and McIntosh-Whyte expect well-run businesses with low debt levels to prosper.

Source: Your Money

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Scottish housing market bucks UK trend

Average house prices in Scotland have hit their highest ever level, despite the struggles facing the property market in England and Wales.

According to data from Your Move, the average house price in Scotland is now £184,569 – up 1 per cent month-on-month and 5.5 per cent year-on-year.

This is the highest average ever, above the March 2015 peak set by the spike in prices immediately ahead of the introduction of the Land and Buildings Transaction Tax.

Meanwhile, UK-wide house price growth has fallen to its lowest level in more than five years amid concerns about a no-deal Brexit and further interest rate increases.

Christine Campbell, Your Move managing director in Scotland, said: “Setting a new peak average price at a time when many parts of the UK are struggling to maintain prices is a significant show of strength from the Scottish market. Scotland continues to defy the pessimists.”

Your Move’s analysis said there were not particular circumstances which explained this rise, and attributed it instead to a gradual increase over the past three years.

The increase has also been broad-based, with Edinburgh reporting an increase of 10 per cent over the past year and Glasgow seeing prices go up by 9 per cent.

Meanwhile areas such as Angus saw prices go up by 11 per cent while Na h-Eileanan Siar saw house price rises of 12 per cent.

Alan Penman, business development manager for Walker Fraser Steele, one of Scotland’s oldest firms of chartered surveyors, said: “Despite any uncertainty surrounding Brexit, the Scottish market could hardly hope for a better position from which to face whatever challenges the next few months bring.”

Source: FT Adviser

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Buy-to-let specialists are thriving

Figures recently included in the Mortgage Market Tracker from the Intermediary Mortgage Lenders Association suggest brokers saw the largest drop in business volumes in the third quarter of 2018 that they’ve experienced in more than two years.

This hasn’t been our experience in 2018 at all, which is most likely down to us deliberately taking a strategic approach to our positioning. Even in a market where buyers, movers and developers are choosing to sit on their hands, we’ve concentrated on areas of the market where we know we can add significant value.

There are a number of trends that have affected the shape of lending in 2018, the most significant being the impact of changes in taxation and affordability testing in the buy-to-let market. The reduction in tax relief on buy-to-let mortgage interest and the tougher stress-testing rules from the Prudential Regulation Authority are beginning to have a visible effect on lending trends.

Limited company buy-to-let has been a big win for us this year, as has our commitment to offering flexible affordability criteria to landlords with other sources of income.

Adding value to investment properties at the outset has also been a focus for landlords increasingly this year. We’ve helped landlords by adapting our application processes for short-term bridge to let and launching our new Refurbishment buy-to-let proposition which features a double proc fee and single application.

We believe this demonstrates both our commitment as a lender to supporting our borrowers and introducers, and also illustrates the value that a specialist lender can offer in today’s market.

Buy-to-let remortgaging has been a significant part of the market this year, and that’s not accounting for product transfers in buy-to-let. The big high street lenders have necessarily had to focus on retention in 2018 as margin pressures have got tougher and transaction volumes have remained subdued.

That has opened up an opportunity for specialist lenders to plug the gaps created by these shifts. We’re big enough to make a meaningful difference to the supply of specialist buy-to-let finance and nimble enough to be able to flex our criteria and underwriting to adapt to the needs of borrowers in a changing market.

What’s in store for 2019? Well, that remains to be seen. But I suspect that it will be a year in which smaller specialists continue to thrive.

And, rest assured, that we will remain committed to supporting brokers and borrowers whose needs are not being met on a high street increasingly under pressure.

Source: Mortgage Introducer