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Negative rates could be on the cards in no-deal Brexit chaos

Interest rates could be slashed into negative territory for the first time in history to combat the fallout from a chaotic no-deal Brexit, a former Bank of England policymaker has warned.

David “Danny” Blanchflower – who sat on the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) from June 2006 to June 2009 – told the Press Association that policymakers may be left with little option but to take rates below zero if a no-deal Brexit sends shockwaves through the economy.

In a savage critique of the Bank’s recent scenario analysis of Brexit, he said Governor Mark Carney and his team were “stupid” to indicate that rates could even rise in a disorderly withdrawal.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has come under fire over Brexit analysis which warned that rates could rise to 5.5% (Daniel Leal-Olivas/PA)

It comes after the Bank’s controversial “doomsday scenario” report, published at the request of MPs on the Treasury Select Committee, warned that interest rates could rise as high as 5.5% if a plunging pound sent inflation soaring.

Mr Blanchflower said: “It was stupid what they said.

“That was a big error. It would kill the British economy stone dead.

“The first thing you would have to start thinking about would be negative rates.”

The British-born economist, who moved to the US in 1989, said the bank had “very few arrows in the quiver” to boost the economy, with rates at just 0.75% having only recently been lifted off all-time lows.

0.75%
Current Bank of England base rate

He said this would mean negative rates “have to be on the table, because you’d be trying to encourage people to spend and not save”.

His comments come after current MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe also took aim at the Bank’s Brexit analysis, saying in a speech earlier this month that rates were more likely to be cut than hiked in a no-deal scenario.

The warning over negative rates confirms that the UK could be heading into uncharted economic territory if a deal is not secured.

While the financial crisis was unprecedented, the Bank at least had plenty of room to cut rates to help contain the fallout.

But Mr Blanchflower – a lone voice on the MPC calling for rates to be cut in 2008 when others failed to see the scale of the recession on the horizon – said the Bank could also look to rekindle its quantitative easing programme again if needed.

He said it could “broaden out what it buys” under QE, perhaps looking to buy student loans or property.

Whether attributable to Brexit or not, there’s a slowdown coming

David ‘Danny’ Blanchflower

But monetary policy alone would not be able to fix the crisis that would be sparked by a cliff-edge Brexit, with government and fiscal measures also vital, he said.

“The obvious thing would be to cut VAT by five basis points, increase spending like there’s no tomorrow and scrap austerity,” he said.

While the Bank’s last inflation report kept open the prospect of further rate rises, Mr Blanchflower said hikes were “dead in the water”.

With the global economy slowing and growing whispers of a US recession around the corner, he said Brexit was coming at a bad time.

“Whether attributable to Brexit or not, there’s a slowdown coming,” he warned.

Source: Express and Star

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First-time buyers dominate property purchase market for first time in a generation

First-time buyers now account for the majority of mortgaged property purchases, overtaking the joint numbers of subsequent-time buyers and buy-to-let investors, for the first time since 1995.

According to the latest Halifax First-Time Buyer Review, first-time buyers now account for just over half of all property purchases funded by a mortgage, rather than cash transactions, up 38% on a decade ago. The average price paid for a borrower’s first home is up 39% on average, from £153,030 in 2008 to £212,473 in 2018. Over the same period the average deposit has jumped by 57% from £21,133 (14% of purchase price) to £33,252 (20%)

The research shows that the total number of individuals or couples buying property for the first time has increased by 2% in the past year, continuing a seven year upwards trend. Growth last year was considerably slower than 2017 (7.6%) and 2015 (9%), but overall the numbers are up 92% on the low of 192,300 seen in 2008.

The number of first-time buyers has gone up 2% in the last 12 months, continuing an upward trend over the last seven years. Although growth in 2018 was at a slower rate than 2017 (7.6%) and 2016 (9%), first-time buyers overall have increased by 92% from an all-time low of 192,300 in 2008.

First-time buyers now account for just over 50% of all house purchases with a mortgage, an increase from 38% a decade ago. Halifax data revealed that the average price paid for a typical first home has gone up by 39%, from £153,030 in 2008, to £212,473 in 2018, and the average deposit has increased by 57% from £21,133 to £33,252 over the same period¹.

Borrowers buying in London are putting down a staggering £110,656 on average,  while those in Wales are paying the lowest average deposit of £16,449.

Terraced houses, closely followed by semi-detached properties have continued to be the first-time buyer’s home of choice over the past decade, making up two-thirds (67%) of mortgages for first homes in 2018.

The average age of a first-time buyer in 2018 has remained at 31 – two years older than a decade ago. In London it has grown from 31 to 33 since 2008 – the oldest in the UK. The biggest increase in age was in Northern Ireland, up by three years from 28 to 31.

Russell Galley, managing director, Halifax, said: “New buyers coming on to the ladder are vital for the overall wellbeing of the UK housing market, and the continued growth in first-time buyers shows healthy movement in this important area – despite a shortage of homes and the ongoing challenge of raising a deposit.

“Last year was the first year that first-time buyers accounted for the majority of the market since 1995, which shows that the factors reducing some of the associated costs – such as continued low mortgage rates and Stamp Duty – are supporting the increasing number of people taking their first step on to the property ladder.”

Source: Your Money

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Commercial property: High street challenges need addressed

The currently volatile environment for UK retailers presents a significant challenge to the commercial property sector. Along with the estimated 85,000 jobs lost in UK retailing in 2018 is the worrying rise in empty commercial units.

Figures published in the Scottish Retail Consortium-Springboard Footfall and Vacancies Monitor show hat one in eight high street shop premises lay vacant last month, with a 12 per cent town centre vacancy rate in Scotland, up the 11.1 per cent recorded last October.

Steps are being taken across the nation to repurpose some of these vacant premises for residential, hotel, leisure or community use.

However, UK retailers must also continue to repurpose their businesses to ensure they are relevant to the changing nature of consumer demands.

Many of those which managed to avoid insolvency last year are now embarking on store closure plans and rationalising their portfolios. The trend of traditional retailers extending their online offering also continues, with some smaller stores diversifying by installing convenient customer options such as Amazon lockers and becoming click-and-collect points for larger retailers.

Technological advances, including the use of mobile payment, scan and payment checkout apps, are also making the sector more efficient, while further progress in areas such as VR and AI offers an additional strand of support.

In spite of these positive developments, there is no doubt that many of the larger retailers will continue to struggle with the size and cost of their property portfolios. Debenhams is continuing discussions with its lenders and is not ruling out a company voluntary arrangement, while the new management at Marks and Spencer is promising dramatic changes in range, style and customer focus.

Meanwhile, other big high street names seek to negotiate reduced rents with their landlords to keep themselves trading. The changing nature of the marketplace requires retailers to make bold decisions to entice consumers and leverage value from their physical premises.

Apple and Selfridges are both successfully doing this by making shopping at their outlets an experience. Selfridges credits its successful Christmas trading period to the staging of festive events which drove people into its stores, and Apple delivers added value for customers in its premises by holding free events.

The progression of some online retailers moving to a bricks and mortar model could also make a positive impact on the commercial property sector. Amazon Go is reportedly looking at expanding its app-based convenience store brand into London with the potential of Amazon Books stores opening in the UK.

Physical premises supported by a strong online presence point to the future direction of travel in retailing. While we expect more casualties in the year ahead, the changes that are currently being implemented provides some comfort to commercial property landlords as retailing continues its challenging evolution.

The UK retail market is one of the most dynamic in the world and is the biggest employer in Britain; it is also one of the most adaptive to change. But landlords and tenants must act quickly to stem the tide of store closures and declining footfalls.

Source: Scotsman

London house prices
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London house prices to fall three per cent after a no deal Brexit

London house prices could dip three per cent after a no deal Brexit, new research has found.

In the event of Britain and the EU failing to reach an agreement, housing prices in London could fall three per cent in the six months following the 29 March deadline, according to a Reuters poll out today.

A drop in housing prices would be coupled with a weak pound following a no-deal Brexit, according to Reuters, making homes in the capital more attractive to foreign investors.

“There will be a palpable shock to the UK economy in terms of GDP, inflation, job creation, etc,” Tony Williams of Building Value told Reuters.

Williams said that this would affect the housing market in the UK, with the poll predicting that a no deal Brexit will result in a one per cent drop nationally in house prices.

“This will spill over dramatically to the residential market, with London bearing the brunt given the international catchment of prospective buyers,” Williams told Reuters.

However, if an agreement is reached, property prices are expected to rise 0.5 per cent in the capital and 1.5 per cent nationally.

The poll, which was conducted between 13-20 February, supports previous reports that a no deal Brexit could impact an already cooling housing market.

Peter Dixon, a global financial economist at Commerzbank, told Reuters, “Prices have clearly come off the boil of late but on the assumption that the UK does not leave the EU without a deal, there is scope for the resumption of a modest upward trend.”

A poll of 25 market watchers found that London homes will drop 2 per cent this year, but expect the market to rebound with a rise of 0.5 per cent and 2.5 per cent in the next two years, respectively.

National house prices were predicted to rise in the next three years, starting at 1.5 per cent this year, 1.8 per cent for the next, and then 2.3 per cent in 2021.

Russell Quirk, an online estate agent told Reuters: “The fundamentals of the UK housing market remain as they are: lack of supply; a growing population; cheap money – a Brexit of any flavour will not dent those fundamentals.”

Source: City AM

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More Competition For The Buy To Let Private Landlord

The private landlord has a hard time; whilst many are aware that tenants will seek private rented properties because of better standards, sometimes better areas, there will also be those who believe that private rented accommodation is the worst deal available for tenants and strive to persuade others of this stance. 

I wrote a little time ago of the encouragement that seems to be given to the corporate landlord, the large companies who build new properties in large numbers; they would make up the shortfall there is between what social landlords can provide. Easier to control perhaps than the small private landlord?

I was surprised to read recently that a number of private builders have decided that as they cannot make profitable enough deals with housing associations, they will register themselves as social landlords. Hopkins Homes has a turnover of £166 million; with concerns that the homes they are building will not be affordable without branding as a housing association, they have registered Peal Community Housing as a housing association.

Others have gone the same way; Larkfleet Homes opened Swift Homes as an association in 2018. The Chief Executive of Larkfleet, Karl Hicks, stated ‘It is becoming increasingly difficult for associations to obtain the funds to buy new homes. We have therefore set up Swift…to take on this role directly’.

It seems probable that if these housing associations, and the others like them, operate with success, there will be others that will swiftly follow. Chris Wakefield, a director of Park Properties which registered in September said that there were problems with bureaucracy (there’s a surprise) but echoing other private builder Housing Associations, that the original housing associations, had been known to offer ‘less than build cost’ for developments. Of all the people that should be working for charity and negative profit, it is not fair to expect private builders to join that number.

But are a housing association the way to ensure houses get built and a fair deal be found all round? I think it will be confusing for many people. Will the properties be offered on the same terms as a social property? Will the tenants appreciate the differences, if there are any?

Why is this challenge for the private landlord? Brand new properties will always seem more appealing to some than a characterful, and probably more spacious, older property. I think the grants that landlords used, having diminished, will disappear; the landlords that the Government will want are the corporate lettings. I hope it will work, but not to the detriment of the many caring and responsive private landlords that the local authorities have relied on.

I cannot fail to mention this week that Amber Rudd has had the courage to say that Universal Credit is not working and that more changes need to be put in place if it is to effectively provide benefits to those that need them. Well said, Ms Rudd. Is she making a place for herself as the landlords’ friend? There may be a general election before long – Amber Rudd as Prime Minister? Remember you heard it here first!

Source: Residential Landlord

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A Brexit-induced price drop won’t fix the housing crisis

The average home has leapt from £81,536 in 1988 to £473,882 in 2018 – that’s a 481 per cent increase.

If the cost of a pint of milk (26p in 1988) had jumped up at the same pace, it would now cost a whopping £1.52 – three times the current price.

Anyone who has watched the news or read the papers in recent years will know that we are neck-deep in a housing crisis, and it extends way beyond the capital. Half of young people in the country have no chance of ever buying a home, and private renters on lower incomes spend an average of 67 per cent of their earnings on rent.

Already the situation is out of control, and that’s before we factor in Brexit, the harbinger of economic instability.

Many have blamed Brexit for the recent slowing and occasional fall of house prices in London – but could this actually be a blessing in disguise?

Could falling prices mean that a few more young professionals will be able to climb onto the first rung of the housing ladder?

As they move into homeownership, will that free up rented homes, causing private rents to fall? Will those on lower incomes then be able to afford their rent again? Will the whole market become more affordable, suddenly meaning that – hallelujah – the housing crisis is over?

Alas, I’m afraid not. And here’s why.

First, falling house prices are often a symptom of an economic downturn or recession. This affects people’s spending power, whether they are first-time buyers saving for a deposit, or homeowners who see the value of their existing property stall or fall into negative equity.

That will make houses harder to either buy or sell in relative terms.

Second, inflation is expected to go up after Brexit, which means that people’s incomes will be squeezed regardless of their homeownership ambitions. And banks are generally less keen to lend when house prices are heading downhill.

And finally, house prices are still at historic highs. In London, the average property is 13 times the average wage.

House prices may fall, but it’s the fundamentals of the London market – volatility resulting from under-supply – that causes these problems.

A drop in house prices is yet another symptom of the crisis, not a cure for it. We have a severe and worsening housing shortage in this country, and in particular a shortage of homes at the more affordable end of the market.

There are more than a million households on the social housing waiting list, but the government only delivered 6,000 new social homes in the whole of England last year.

The sadness we all feel at the number of rough sleepers on the streets turns to dismay when we realise that this is just the tip of the iceberg: almost 280,000 people in England are currently homeless.

To truly solve our housing crisis, we must build a whole raft of homes that are affordable to a whole lot more people. That is why Shelter is calling for 3.1m new social homes over the next 20 years.

Some naysayers will claim that it’s impossible to do, but we’ve done it before – after the Second World War – to great economic success and public acclaim. We can do it again.

Our vision for social housing would offer the chance of a stable home to millions of people who fail to qualify under the current system. It would provide much-needed security and a step up for younger renters desperate to get on in life and build a brighter future for themselves and their family.

The current housing situation amounts to a national emergency. Brexit-induced price falls won’t solve the problem. Building more will.

Source: City AM

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No-deal Brexit would take a chip off UK home values

Britain’s over-valued housing market will undergo a modest correction if the country leaves the European Union at the end of next month without a deal, a Reuters poll found, with London being affected to a greater degree.

Negotiators are still scrambling to reach agreement, and if they fail then home prices in the capital, which has long been a magnet for foreign investors, will fall 3 percent in the six months after the March 29 split.

Nationally, prices will drop 1 percent, the Feb. 13-20 poll found.

“There will be a palpable shock to the UK economy in terms of GDP, inflation, job creation etc,” said Tony Williams at property consultancy Building Value.

He says prices in the capital would fall 10 percent if there were no deal, the most pessimistic forecast.

“This will spill over dramatically to the residential market, with London bearing the brunt given the international catchment of prospective buyers.”

Since the June 2016 referendum decision to leave the EU, Reuters polls have consistently said a no-deal scenario would knock the economy, equities, housing market and sterling.

However, a dip in the currency – a recent Reuters poll said sterling would fall 5-10 percent if there was no agreement – would make property cheaper for foreign investors, likely offsetting some of the uncertainty.

If an agreement is reached, and most economists think it will be, house prices will rise 1.5 percent nationally and 0.5 in London in the six months after.

The wider poll of 25 market watchers said national home prices would rise 1.5 percent this year and 1.8 percent in 2020, both weaker than forecast three months ago. In 2021 they are expected to increase 2.3 percent.

In London prices are predicted to fall 2.0 percent this year, much sharper than in the last poll, and then rise 0.5 percent and 2.5 percent in the following two years.

“Prices have clearly come off the boil of late but on the assumption that the UK does not leave the EU without a deal, there is scope for the resumption of a modest upward trend,” said Peter Dixon at Commerzbank.

Reflecting the uncertainty, the range of forecasts for 2019 was wide, between a 3 percent fall and a 0.5 percent rise. Nationally, it was even wider – ranging from a 3 percent rise to a 3 percent fall.

OVERVALUED

With uncertainty still surrounding the Brexit outcome, nine of 16 respondents said they think turnover in London homes will fall this year while only two expected a rise. Nationally, 10 said turnover would stay the same, six said fall and two said rise.

“Sales levels will likely stay the same in 2019 as 2018 across the UK although this will vary across the regions,” said Leslie Schroeder at property consultancy Carter Jonas.

“We expect that London and the South East will see a slight fall in overall levels compared with 2018, again as affordability weighs heavily on the ability for average UK earners to move and buy houses.”

When asked to describe the level of London house prices on a scale of 1 to 10 from extremely cheap to extremely expensive, the median response was 8. Nationally they were rated 7, where it has been for a few years.

Those high ratings are unsurprising as the annual average British salary is around 30,000 pounds but the average asking price for a home in Britain was 300,715 pounds this month and more than double that in London, property website Rightmove said.

So although borrowing costs are currently very low and not expected to rise much in the coming years, prospective buyers trying to get on the property ladder will struggle as prices continue to rise, despite them increasing more slowly this year and next than wages and general inflation are predicted to.

“The fundamentals of the UK housing market remain as they are: lack of supply; a growing population; cheap money – a Brexit of any flavour will not dent those fundamentals,” said Russell Quirk at online estate agent eMoov.

Source: UK Reuters

UK house prices House price growth
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House prices rise just £714 in a year, new study reveals

In a new study, Rightmove revealed that house prices rose just £714 in a year; something they haven’t seen happen in over a decade.

As the spring market approaches and people consider putting their house on the market, plus with Brexit looming, it’s a time of uncertainty for everyone — but what does it mean for buyers and sellers?

‘Longer daylight hours and green shoots appearing in gardens herald the start of the traditionally more buoyant spring market,’ Miles Shipside, Rightmove Director and Housing Market Analyst tells House Beautiful UK. 

‘Sellers’ subdued pricing is now being outstripped by higher average wage growth, meaning that buyer affordability is on the rise at the fastest rate in nearly eight years.’

What does this mean for first-time buyers?

Though it’s uncertain times for everyone, Shipside gives his advice on what this could mean for first-time buyers — and it looks like a promising season if you’re planning on buying your first property.

‘Buyers are being given the leg-up by cheap mortgage rates, if they can meet lenders’ criteria and lay their hands on a large enough deposit. In theory the scene would be set for an active spring if it were not for the uncertain political backdrop,’ explains Miles.

‘As it is, the extent of that activity will depend on the degree of hesitancy among sellers to try to sell and be realistic on price, and buyers overcoming short-term uncertainty and taking a medium-term view that this is a good time to buy. As always those decisions will also be influenced by local market dynamics.’

He goes on to say: ‘A first-time buyer in London recently enthused to me that she and several of her friends were now buying properties.

‘She was aided and abetted by a five-year fix of 1.7 per cent, meaning that she could live cheaper on her own than sharing a rented property, since she was fortunate enough to be able to find the money for a deposit. Sellers’ greater willingness to negotiate because of the political uncertainty also helped her cause.’

Source: House Beautiful

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Research reveals small and large UK property owners’ biggest concerns

Owning a property is an essential aspect for every individual. Wait, are we discussing purchasing a house in the UK? Of course, yes. Affordability of housing merely affects an individual’s condition- both mentally and physically. Did you know, 2/3rd of the UK residents are still living in the rented sector? Well, the reason is pretty visible- due to unaffordability factors in the locality, and the cost of the property. Well, location is another major concern for the majority of residents in the country.

Research says, nearly 12,000 tenants have chosen to live in the rented sector by their own choice and not due to the prices of houses. How about the rest? The remaining group of individuals has no options left but to live as a tenant. The current rent or tenant statistics is 5 million, and it is expected to be 5.80 million households in the next two years. Of course, the tenants would be elderly, retirees and the youngsters of the country. What are the reasons for rising prices in the real estate market?

Reasons for unaffordable growth in the housing sector

Well, here are some of the significant concerns that we need to look upon, and make it affordable for every individual though. Mentioned below are some massive factors:

  • The higher cost of living
  • The absence of rent control measures
  • Increase in Private Landlords
  • Too much of the wealth gap in the country
  • Non-diagnosing of the root causes from media and government

How can we make it affordable?

Well, this cannot be a single person’s thought or action. This needs many hands and brains to work upon and raise the concerns. The reasons are already known to most of us. Not only buying houses have become expensive, but even the roof repairs and maintenance also have been costly. Well, research says that owning a property in the United Kingdom is the most luxurious asset. To prevent the rise in prices, we can act upon some specific policies:

  • Why not free up those local authorities to invest or purchase in a new property?
  • Private landlords and their pricing modules need to be monitored and manage with necessary regulations.
  • Land and property taxations need to be reformed once again.
  • Land Hoarding can be replaced with Development in the sector.

However, acting upon being a single individual is nearly impossible. Did you know many of the individuals have started moving to other places leaving London altogether? Most of them are young buds. Approximately 7,000 people are homeless and are spending their cold nights on the busy streets. Not just the UK, many countries need to reform their real estate sector and housing policies. This will undoubtedly make the living of every individual better and improved. Well, as mentioned already some of the tenants have entered the rental sector with their own choice, may be due to their work, or other factors, but the majority of them have chosen to be a rented citizen due to their unaffordability.

Inevitably, the private rented sector will grow to enhance in the tenant demands, but is this working well for the whole industry? Don’t you think there’s a need to act upon these issues?

Source: London Loves Business

energy Help to Buy
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Help to Buy sends number of first-time buyers into the 12-year record books

The number of first-time buyers reached a new high last year – with the catalyst being Help to Buy, the scheme that helps purchasers of new-build homes only.

According to trade body UK Finance, there were 370,000 new first-time buyer mortgages completed last year, some 1.9% higher than in 2017.

This is the highest number of first-time buyer mortgages since the pre-crash year of 2006 when the figure was 402,800.

In the last month of last year, there were 30,900 first-time buyer mortgages completed, up 1.6% on a monthly basis.

The number of home-mover mortgages was down in December, at 30,000. This was 1.3% fewer than in November. Altogether last year, there were 367,800 new home-mover mortgages, 1.9% down on 2017.

Buy-to-let purchase mortgages also dwindled last year.

In 2018, there were 66,400 new buy-to-let home purchase mortgages, or 11.5% fewer than in 2017.

Remortgaging in both home-owner and buy-to-let sectors rose – by 10.8% and 11.2% respectively.

Jackie Bennett, director of mortgages at UK Finance, said: “The mortgage industry helped 370,000 people buy their first home in 2018, the highest number in 12 years, as competitive deals and government schemes such as Help to Buy continue to boost the market.

“Home-owner remortgaging also saw strong growth driven by customers locking into attractive rates, a trend we expect to continue in 2019 as more fixed-rate mortgages come to an end.

“Demand for new buy-to-let purchases continues to be dampened by recent tax and regulatory changes.

“However, the number of buy-to-let remortgages reached a record high of almost 170,000 last year, suggesting many landlords remain committed to the market.”

John Phillips, operations director at Just Mortgages and Spicerhaart, said: “First-time buyers are holding up the purchase market, as incentives Help to Buy and the freeze on Stamp Duty, plus new mortgages like Lloyds ‘lend a hand’ 100% mortgage offering coming on to the market, are making it easier for them to make that first move on to the housing ladder.

“We are increasingly seeing people choosing to remortgage to free up cash to do work to their current homes rather than move, either because the Stamp Duty and other costs make it too expensive, or because they are unwilling to take the risk in an uncertain market.

“But post March 29 I think there will be a change in sentiment. No matter what the outcome, uncertainly will be taken out of the equation, and as a result, I think the purchase market will start to pick up. But overall, we will probably not see the effects of that until much later on in the year.”

Despite the surge in first-time buyers, the number of renters between the ages of 25 and 34 has risen 20% since 1998, according to the ONS.

Source: Property Industry Eye