The traditional north-south divide in house price growth will turn on its head, with the Midlands, North and Scotland expected to see the strongest increases, according to Savills.
New forecasts from the international real estate adviser predicts UK house prices will rise on average by 14.8% between 2019 and 2023.
Savills is projecting a wide range of growth from 21.6% in the North West to single digit growth of 4.5% in London and 9.3% in the South East and the East.
London’s prime market will perform more strongly, with prime central London expected to rise by 12.4%.
Housing transactions are likely to stabilise, with first-time buyer and cash buyer numbers most resilient.
Savills expects rents to rise 13.7% over the next five years with London rents up by 15.9%.
Lucian Cook, Savills head of residential research, said: “Brexit angst is a major factor for market sentiment right now, particularly in London, but it’s the legacy of the global financial crisis – mortgage regulation in particular – combined with gradually rising interest rates that will really shape the market over the longer term.
“That legacy will limit house price growth, but it should also protect the market from a correction.”
Transactions, rather than house prices, are often seen as the ultimate measure of market strength. Sales volumes have fallen only -6.9% since the Brexit vote to 1.145 million, demonstrating the resilience of the UK housing market, Savills says.
The firm expects this figure to decrease by 1% over the next five years. But a continued rebalancing of the composition of the market is expected, with mortgaged buy-to-let investor purchases falling by -23%. This will add to upwards pressure on rents, particularly in London, as investors look to lower value, higher yielding markets.
London
London house prices have risen by 72% over the past ten years, well ahead of any other region. The average home buyer with a mortgage now pays just under £429,000 and has a household income of almost £76,000 (58% higher than the UK average). Even with borrowing at over four times that income, these households still need a deposit of £123,000.
Small falls (-2.0%) are expected in London’s mainstream market next year, before values bottom out in 2020 and tick up steadily from 2021. Price growth in London over the next five years is forecast to total 4.5%.
The prime London markets are less dependent on mortgage borrowing and will outperform the mainstream, Savills says. The UK capital is expected to remain an attractive place to live, work and own residential assets, supporting12.4% price growth in prime central London by the end of 2023.
Regional story
At this point in the cycle, the highest price growth is expected in the lower value markets much further from the capital, which have seen nothing like the 10-year price rises seen in London – just 1.9% in the North and 5.8% in Scotland.
The Midlands, the North of England, Yorkshire and Humberside, Scotland and Wales all have the capacity for borrowing to increase relative to incomes, even allowing for higher interest rates, and this will support price growth ranging from 17.6% to 21.6% across these regions.
Key regional economies – most notably the metros of Manchester and Birmingham – have the capacity to outperform their regions attracting both local and investor buyers.
Wales will perform in line with the Midlands as it has done in previous cycles, but it is a hugely diverse market. There may be increased housing demand crossing over from Bristol once the Severn bridge tolls are abolished.
Scotland, which has only recently returned to pre credit crunch peak, is performing strongly, particularly Edinburgh and Glasgow, which have seen prices rise 8.9% and 7% over the past year, respectively.
Transactions
Housing transactions have fallen from 1.619 million in 2007 to around 1.145 million this year, but are forecast to remain stable over the next five years, though the market mix has changed.
Cash buyers now account for almost a third of all sales (31%). The bank of mum and dad has provided important support to first-time buyer numbers and, judging by receipts from the 3% surcharge for additional homes, cash is also an important component of investment demand, Savills says.
Mortgaged first-time buyers, the only buyer group to have expanded since 2007 – from 359,000 to 370,000 this year – continue to be supported by Help to Buy and the bank of Mum and Dad. Numbers are expected to remain robust despite the prospect of a less generous, more targeted Help to Buy, with a fall of just -2.7% anticipated by 2023.
Mortgaged home mover numbers have fallen dramatically since 2007 as existing home owners move home less frequently. Numbers are down from 653,000 to 370,000, but having adjusted for stress testing of borrowing, are expected to remain constant over the next five years.
Buy-to-let buyer numbers will continue to come under pressure. Stamp duty and mortgage-interest tax relief changes have led highly leveraged investors to rationalise portfolios or pay down debt.
Rental growth to outpace income growth
Rental growth is expected to track house price growth, averaging 13.7% over the next five years. Tightening access to mortgage finance and limited social housing supply is driving demand for privately rented homes at all price points.
Cook concluded: “Until the market sees a significant injection of build to rent stock, rental demand will outstrip supply and rents will rise.
“Investor buyers requiring borrowing are expected to focus on higher yielding markets and this will put further upwards pressure on rents in some of the most expensive rental locations.”
Source: Mortgage Finance Gazette