Marketing No Comments

No-deal Brexit would take a chip off UK home values

Britain’s over-valued housing market will undergo a modest correction if the country leaves the European Union at the end of next month without a deal, a Reuters poll found, with London being affected to a greater degree.

Negotiators are still scrambling to reach agreement, and if they fail then home prices in the capital, which has long been a magnet for foreign investors, will fall 3 percent in the six months after the March 29 split.

Nationally, prices will drop 1 percent, the Feb. 13-20 poll found.

“There will be a palpable shock to the UK economy in terms of GDP, inflation, job creation etc,” said Tony Williams at property consultancy Building Value.

He says prices in the capital would fall 10 percent if there were no deal, the most pessimistic forecast.

“This will spill over dramatically to the residential market, with London bearing the brunt given the international catchment of prospective buyers.”

Since the June 2016 referendum decision to leave the EU, Reuters polls have consistently said a no-deal scenario would knock the economy, equities, housing market and sterling.

However, a dip in the currency – a recent Reuters poll said sterling would fall 5-10 percent if there was no agreement – would make property cheaper for foreign investors, likely offsetting some of the uncertainty.

If an agreement is reached, and most economists think it will be, house prices will rise 1.5 percent nationally and 0.5 in London in the six months after.

The wider poll of 25 market watchers said national home prices would rise 1.5 percent this year and 1.8 percent in 2020, both weaker than forecast three months ago. In 2021 they are expected to increase 2.3 percent.

In London prices are predicted to fall 2.0 percent this year, much sharper than in the last poll, and then rise 0.5 percent and 2.5 percent in the following two years.

“Prices have clearly come off the boil of late but on the assumption that the UK does not leave the EU without a deal, there is scope for the resumption of a modest upward trend,” said Peter Dixon at Commerzbank.

Reflecting the uncertainty, the range of forecasts for 2019 was wide, between a 3 percent fall and a 0.5 percent rise. Nationally, it was even wider – ranging from a 3 percent rise to a 3 percent fall.

OVERVALUED

With uncertainty still surrounding the Brexit outcome, nine of 16 respondents said they think turnover in London homes will fall this year while only two expected a rise. Nationally, 10 said turnover would stay the same, six said fall and two said rise.

“Sales levels will likely stay the same in 2019 as 2018 across the UK although this will vary across the regions,” said Leslie Schroeder at property consultancy Carter Jonas.

“We expect that London and the South East will see a slight fall in overall levels compared with 2018, again as affordability weighs heavily on the ability for average UK earners to move and buy houses.”

When asked to describe the level of London house prices on a scale of 1 to 10 from extremely cheap to extremely expensive, the median response was 8. Nationally they were rated 7, where it has been for a few years.

Those high ratings are unsurprising as the annual average British salary is around 30,000 pounds but the average asking price for a home in Britain was 300,715 pounds this month and more than double that in London, property website Rightmove said.

So although borrowing costs are currently very low and not expected to rise much in the coming years, prospective buyers trying to get on the property ladder will struggle as prices continue to rise, despite them increasing more slowly this year and next than wages and general inflation are predicted to.

“The fundamentals of the UK housing market remain as they are: lack of supply; a growing population; cheap money – a Brexit of any flavour will not dent those fundamentals,” said Russell Quirk at online estate agent eMoov.

Source: UK Reuters

UK house prices House price growth
Marketing No Comments

House prices rise just £714 in a year, new study reveals

In a new study, Rightmove revealed that house prices rose just £714 in a year; something they haven’t seen happen in over a decade.

As the spring market approaches and people consider putting their house on the market, plus with Brexit looming, it’s a time of uncertainty for everyone — but what does it mean for buyers and sellers?

‘Longer daylight hours and green shoots appearing in gardens herald the start of the traditionally more buoyant spring market,’ Miles Shipside, Rightmove Director and Housing Market Analyst tells House Beautiful UK. 

‘Sellers’ subdued pricing is now being outstripped by higher average wage growth, meaning that buyer affordability is on the rise at the fastest rate in nearly eight years.’

What does this mean for first-time buyers?

Though it’s uncertain times for everyone, Shipside gives his advice on what this could mean for first-time buyers — and it looks like a promising season if you’re planning on buying your first property.

‘Buyers are being given the leg-up by cheap mortgage rates, if they can meet lenders’ criteria and lay their hands on a large enough deposit. In theory the scene would be set for an active spring if it were not for the uncertain political backdrop,’ explains Miles.

‘As it is, the extent of that activity will depend on the degree of hesitancy among sellers to try to sell and be realistic on price, and buyers overcoming short-term uncertainty and taking a medium-term view that this is a good time to buy. As always those decisions will also be influenced by local market dynamics.’

He goes on to say: ‘A first-time buyer in London recently enthused to me that she and several of her friends were now buying properties.

‘She was aided and abetted by a five-year fix of 1.7 per cent, meaning that she could live cheaper on her own than sharing a rented property, since she was fortunate enough to be able to find the money for a deposit. Sellers’ greater willingness to negotiate because of the political uncertainty also helped her cause.’

Source: House Beautiful

property
Marketing No Comments

Research reveals small and large UK property owners’ biggest concerns

Owning a property is an essential aspect for every individual. Wait, are we discussing purchasing a house in the UK? Of course, yes. Affordability of housing merely affects an individual’s condition- both mentally and physically. Did you know, 2/3rd of the UK residents are still living in the rented sector? Well, the reason is pretty visible- due to unaffordability factors in the locality, and the cost of the property. Well, location is another major concern for the majority of residents in the country.

Research says, nearly 12,000 tenants have chosen to live in the rented sector by their own choice and not due to the prices of houses. How about the rest? The remaining group of individuals has no options left but to live as a tenant. The current rent or tenant statistics is 5 million, and it is expected to be 5.80 million households in the next two years. Of course, the tenants would be elderly, retirees and the youngsters of the country. What are the reasons for rising prices in the real estate market?

Reasons for unaffordable growth in the housing sector

Well, here are some of the significant concerns that we need to look upon, and make it affordable for every individual though. Mentioned below are some massive factors:

  • The higher cost of living
  • The absence of rent control measures
  • Increase in Private Landlords
  • Too much of the wealth gap in the country
  • Non-diagnosing of the root causes from media and government

How can we make it affordable?

Well, this cannot be a single person’s thought or action. This needs many hands and brains to work upon and raise the concerns. The reasons are already known to most of us. Not only buying houses have become expensive, but even the roof repairs and maintenance also have been costly. Well, research says that owning a property in the United Kingdom is the most luxurious asset. To prevent the rise in prices, we can act upon some specific policies:

  • Why not free up those local authorities to invest or purchase in a new property?
  • Private landlords and their pricing modules need to be monitored and manage with necessary regulations.
  • Land and property taxations need to be reformed once again.
  • Land Hoarding can be replaced with Development in the sector.

However, acting upon being a single individual is nearly impossible. Did you know many of the individuals have started moving to other places leaving London altogether? Most of them are young buds. Approximately 7,000 people are homeless and are spending their cold nights on the busy streets. Not just the UK, many countries need to reform their real estate sector and housing policies. This will undoubtedly make the living of every individual better and improved. Well, as mentioned already some of the tenants have entered the rental sector with their own choice, may be due to their work, or other factors, but the majority of them have chosen to be a rented citizen due to their unaffordability.

Inevitably, the private rented sector will grow to enhance in the tenant demands, but is this working well for the whole industry? Don’t you think there’s a need to act upon these issues?

Source: London Loves Business

energy Help to Buy
Marketing No Comments

Help to Buy sends number of first-time buyers into the 12-year record books

The number of first-time buyers reached a new high last year – with the catalyst being Help to Buy, the scheme that helps purchasers of new-build homes only.

According to trade body UK Finance, there were 370,000 new first-time buyer mortgages completed last year, some 1.9% higher than in 2017.

This is the highest number of first-time buyer mortgages since the pre-crash year of 2006 when the figure was 402,800.

In the last month of last year, there were 30,900 first-time buyer mortgages completed, up 1.6% on a monthly basis.

The number of home-mover mortgages was down in December, at 30,000. This was 1.3% fewer than in November. Altogether last year, there were 367,800 new home-mover mortgages, 1.9% down on 2017.

Buy-to-let purchase mortgages also dwindled last year.

In 2018, there were 66,400 new buy-to-let home purchase mortgages, or 11.5% fewer than in 2017.

Remortgaging in both home-owner and buy-to-let sectors rose – by 10.8% and 11.2% respectively.

Jackie Bennett, director of mortgages at UK Finance, said: “The mortgage industry helped 370,000 people buy their first home in 2018, the highest number in 12 years, as competitive deals and government schemes such as Help to Buy continue to boost the market.

“Home-owner remortgaging also saw strong growth driven by customers locking into attractive rates, a trend we expect to continue in 2019 as more fixed-rate mortgages come to an end.

“Demand for new buy-to-let purchases continues to be dampened by recent tax and regulatory changes.

“However, the number of buy-to-let remortgages reached a record high of almost 170,000 last year, suggesting many landlords remain committed to the market.”

John Phillips, operations director at Just Mortgages and Spicerhaart, said: “First-time buyers are holding up the purchase market, as incentives Help to Buy and the freeze on Stamp Duty, plus new mortgages like Lloyds ‘lend a hand’ 100% mortgage offering coming on to the market, are making it easier for them to make that first move on to the housing ladder.

“We are increasingly seeing people choosing to remortgage to free up cash to do work to their current homes rather than move, either because the Stamp Duty and other costs make it too expensive, or because they are unwilling to take the risk in an uncertain market.

“But post March 29 I think there will be a change in sentiment. No matter what the outcome, uncertainly will be taken out of the equation, and as a result, I think the purchase market will start to pick up. But overall, we will probably not see the effects of that until much later on in the year.”

Despite the surge in first-time buyers, the number of renters between the ages of 25 and 34 has risen 20% since 1998, according to the ONS.

Source: Property Industry Eye

uk property asking prices UK property transactions housing
Marketing No Comments

UK property transactions drop by a third over the past three months

Reapit research has found that UK property transactions have plummeted by a third in the past three months as Brexit uncertainty weighs on the market.

Reapit, the leading software platform for estate agents, compared its most recent three months of sales data with the five-year average for the same November-January period in order to gauge the impact of uncertainty on the property market across its measurable metrics.

By analysing data from thousands of estate agents’ offices, it found strong indicators of a stalled market across the board. Every data point was down on the five-year average, from the initial market appraisals, which are carried out by agents to give a likely asking price and property marketing strategy, through to exchange of contracts and ultimate sale.

Key results from the Reapit research are:

  • The average number of exchanges recorded per estate agent office dropped by 36% when compared to the long-term average
  • Properties under offer were down 8% on the long-term average
  • Instructions of new properties were down 10%
  • Viewings of properties were down 5%
  • Market appraisals of properties were down 2.5%

Gary Barker, CEO of Reapit, commenting on the data said: “Although house prices remain reasonably resilient, our research sheds light on the extent to which Brexit uncertainty has affected property transactions in the past three months. Our data reveal that property sales per estate agent have dropped by a third when compared to the long-term average.

“This 36% drop in sales represents an unprecedented five-year November-January low. It’s doubly concerning for estate agents because seasonally, this is a quieter period for transactions compared to the summer months.

“It’s fair to say that the housing market is holding its breath as we await the Brexit outcome. Nobody wants to risk being on the wrong side of a potential house price crash, so the market sentiment is to wait and see.

“There is a silver lining we can be more confident about: once we have clarity, the pent-up demand of people waiting to buy, and supply of people waiting to sell, will see an upswing in activity for the housing industry.  Regardless of politics, life goes on and people need to move homes. Agents need to be prepared when the floodgates are opened.”

Source: Property118

Marketing No Comments

Scotland has second-highest growth in UK, analysis suggests

Scotland’s economy grew by 1.7% in 2018, according to academic estimates, compared with the UK average of 1.4%.

Scotland’s economic growth in 2018 was the second-highest of any UK region, with only London growing more, according to academic estimates.

Although the UK’s economy grew by just 1.4% in 2018 – its lowest rate in six years – Scotland’s economic growth of 1.7% meant it bucked the national tend, new estimates show.

Regional estimates, by academics at the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence, suggest Scottish growth was up from 1.6% on 2017, while average UK growth fell from 1.8% in the previous year.

SNP MSP Gordon Macdonald welcomed the figures and said: “This analysis shows that the fundamentals of the Scottish economy are strong.

With economic growth rising in Scotland and falling elsewhere across the UK, Tory claims that Scotland is somehow uncompetitive have been thoroughly debunked

Gordon Macdonald MSP

“With economic growth rising in Scotland and falling elsewhere across the UK, Tory claims that Scotland is somehow uncompetitive have been thoroughly debunked.

“But Brexit continues to be an enormous threat to jobs and businesses across Scotland – and the public will be concerned at the complete lack of clarity this close to leaving the EU.

“The SNP in government are offering stability and certainty through our budget which supports jobs and businesses.

“The UK Government must do the same by ruling out a no-deal Brexit that would be economically disastrous.”

London continues to far outperform the rest of the UK, with estimated growth of 2.9% in 2018.

In addition to Scotland, the North West, South West and East Midlands saw growth estimates for 2018 slightly higher than the UK as a whole.

Substantially behind the UK average were Wales, Northern Ireland and the East of England.

Source: Express and Star

Marketing No Comments

First-time buyer activity reaches pre-crisis levels

The number of first-time buyers (FTBs) in 2018 reached its highest level since before the global financial crisis, UK Finance’s latest Mortgage Trends update has shown.

Last year, 370,000 new FTB mortgages were completed, a 1.9 per cent increase on 2017 and the highest number since 2006 when it was 402,800.

In the year FTBs accounted for £62bn of new lending, with £5.2bn of that taking place in December 2018.

Meanwhile, the data showed 30,000 home mover mortgages were completed in the final month of last year, as well as 34,000 homeowner remortgages.

Jackie Bennett, director of mortgages at UK Finance said: “The mortgage industry helped 370,000 people buy their first home in 2018, the highest number in twelve years, as competitive deals and government schemes such as Help to Buy continue to boost the market.

“Homeowner remortgaging also saw strong growth driven by customers locking into attractive rates, a trend we expect to continue in 2019 as more fixed-rate mortgages come to an end.

Ray Boulger, senior mortgage technical manager at John Charcol, said: “These figures confirm that virtually all the growth in mortgage lending in 2018 came from remortgaging and FTBs, with the lion’s share from remortgaging.

“Although we don’t have comparative 2017 figures for product transfers the likelihood is that product transfers also increased in 2018.

“Housing transactions last year fell below 2014 numbers and are likely to fall again this year. UK Finance is forecasting mortgage lending will be flat in 2019 and so with lower housing transactions and prices flat remortgaging will need to increase just to maintain gross lending levels.”

He added the end of the government’s Help to Buy equity share second charge scheme, which allows buyers to e-mortgage to pay off the Help to Buy equity loan, could have a “major impact” on the volume of mortgage lending post-April 2023.

This was “unless before then the private sector steps up to the plate with viable alternative lending options for FTBs with only a small deposit”, he said.

Elsewhere, December saw a 12.5 per cent year-on-year fall in new buy-to-let home purchase mortgages, with a value of £0.7bn for the month.

The fall was also evident for the rest of 2018, where new buy-to-let home purchases were 11.5 per cent lower than in 2017.

Buy-to-let remortgage completions in December 2018 however, rose 25.3 per cent when compared with December 2017, with a value of £2bn.

Matt Andrews, managing director of mortgages at Masthaven, said: “It is interesting to note the continued downturn of buy-to-let activity across the market.

“From tax alterations to regulatory updates, it seems the sector is really feeling the effects of these changes.

“In order to keep the market attractive to buy-to-let investors and to avoid further market uncertainty, greater incentives and lending products will be paramount.”

But Kevin Roberts, director of Legal & General Mortgage Club, said the data demonstrated a resilient mortgage market.

He said: “The number of mortgage products available are at some of the highest levels we’ve ever seen and combined with competitive rates, this is continuing to entice borrowers, particularly first-time buyers.

“For any borrowers unsure of how the current climate will affect them or how they can potentially take advantage of it, speaking to a mortgage adviser is a great place to start.

“Through their extensive knowledge and access to the whole of market, these experienced professionals will be able to match a borrower’s unique circumstances with the right mortgage product.”

Source: FT Adviser

inflation
Marketing No Comments

Inflation pulled down by falling energy prices

Inflation fell to a two-year low in January according to the Office of National Statistics (ONS).

The 12-month CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation rate was 1.8% in January 2019, down from 2.0% in December 2018. This drop is largely a result of falling energy and fuel prices.

Between December 2018 and January 2019 consumer prices for gas fell by 8.5%, the biggest fall in three decades. This coincided with energy regulator Ofgem’s implementation of their energy price cap which, after coming into effect in January, helped drive down inflation according to ONS.

Mike Hardie, ONS head of inflation, said: “The fall in inflation is due mainly to cheaper gas, electricity and petrol, partly offset by rising ferry ticket prices and air fares falling more slowly than this time last year.”

This latest reduction marks the end of a long run of CPI inflation sitting above the Bank of England’s 2% target. The Brexit referendum caused the value of the pound to fall, which pushed inflation higher. Increasing costs of imported goods meant that Brits’ household disposable income shrank. Inflation peaked at a five-year high of 3.1% in November 2017, when households faced much greater price increases than the EU average.

Stephen Clarke, senior economist at the Resolution Foundation, reported that this drop in inflation should lead to a  “welcome boost to people’s spending power” and “that next month we’re likely to see real wage growth of around 1.5%, the fastest since mid-2016”.

He added “This cannot come too soon for households, with average earnings yet to be restored to their pre-crisis levels.”

Tej Parikh, senior economist at the Institute of Directors, said the lower inflation was a “boon” for the economy as it attempts to weather the effects of Brexit fueled uncertainty: “For the past two years, households have been squeezed between high prices and weak wage growth. With inflation now at a two-year low and growing upward momentum in pay packets, consumers are likely to feel less of a pinch on their wallets.”

Mr Parikh continued, “This easing in the cost of living should provide some uplift for the High Street just as consumer confidence appears to be waning”.

Ian Stewart, chief economist at Deloitte, suggested that the changes should also provide relief for high street retailers. He said falling inflation alongside rising earnings was “delivering a powerful uplift to spending power” and added “Brexit dominates at the moment but were Brexit risks to ease, consumers would be well placed to hit the High Street”.

Due to falling crude oil prices, petrol prices have also fallen by 2.1% per litre between December 2018 and January 2019, which should also come as a pleasant surprise for motorists.

The question now is, will inflation continue to decrease in the future?

Ofgem’s cap is a ceiling that can move up and down twice a year depending on the costs facing energy firms. That cap will be raised this April and this is likely to feed into future CPI figures.

On Wednesday 13th February, npower became the third of Britain’s six major energy providers to say it would raise prices from April following E.ON and EDF which raised their prices on Monday and Tuesday.

Howard Archer, chief economic advisor to the EY Item Club, has said that inflation is largely going to depend on the course of Brexit negotiations in upcoming months.

“Domestic inflationary pressures are expected to pick-up only modestly over the coming months amid likely limited UK growth,” said Mr Archer.

With a Brexit deal, he said inflation could stay below 2% this year – and even dip to 1.6%.

Without a deal, Mr Archer said the Bank of England could cut interest rates as “economic activity would likely take a significant hit”, suggesting a totally different outcome.

Source: Money Expert

green belt
Marketing No Comments

‘Our towns must expand to thrive’: Shropshire Council says green belt homes are a necessary evil

The prospect of building on the county’s green belt has provoked significant criticism – but Shropshire Council says it is ready to defend the plans as the best way of tackling issues faced by towns.

Plans for thousands of homes in Shropshire are vital to stop the decline of communities and ensure controlled development.

That is the message given today by the man in charge of a ‘preferred sites’ consultation for work up until 2036.

Shropshire Council planning expert Adrian Cooper says the plan for 28,750 new homes is the only way to protect communities from speculative developers, and to prevent towns falling into decline.

He said: “There is a reason – we are not just doing this because we want to upset people. We are doing it to stave off a worse outcome.”

All of Shropshire’s towns and villages feature in the plan, which varies from the modest to the large scale plans for hundreds of homes in both Shifnal and Bridgnorth.

Mr Cooper, the council’s planning policy and strategy manager, said that the impact of a lack of affordable housing was affecting communities across the county, and particularly Bridgnorth, and having a knock on effect on employers and the availability of jobs.

He said: ““If we do not make provision for business to remain and grow and expand and attract and retain employees then they will move and that’s really harmful because it exacerbates existing issues you have in towns like Bridgnorth.”

Green belt homes ‘a necessary evil’

Campaign groups in Bridgnorth and Shifnal have been outraged by Shropshire Council plans for development, with sections of green belt earmarked for future development and the prospect of more than 28,000 new homes.

Permission to build on the green belt is only allowed in exceptional circumstance – something campaigners have insisted does not exist – but a senior council official has moved to defend the plans, particularly in relation to Bridgnorth.

Under Shropshire Council’s preferred sites consultation, land across the county is allocated for where houses and businesses can built up until 2036. The plans are yet to be fully approved by the council and there will be another round of consultation.

It also needs to be approved by a government inspector.

For Bridgnorth a large section of green belt at Stanmore is being allocated for development after 2036, and areas are also included in Shifnal.

The choice has sparked a strong reaction from campaigners who have vowed to resist the proposals.

Mr Cooper said: “In both Shifnal and Bridgnorth the difficulties for some areas is it is in the green belt – somewhere people do not expect to see development and it is more difficult to justify that outcome.

“We say in both cases there is a strong argument in the case of intervention because if you do not do something there are some real risks those places will decline, lose employment opportunities, housing will decline and a whole section of the community risks being disenfranchised over decades.”

Asked about the attitude towards building on the green belt Mr Cooper said: “The way government policy works is no, you should not be looking at it.

“We need to produce good reasons and evidence to justify the outcome.”

Policy will help prevent decline

The planning manager said the council believes the policy is necessary to prevent the decline of the area.

He also said other options for providing the housing in other areas had been looked at and discounted.

He said: “Local circumstances are such that if we do not do something that is being proposed, in effect that outcome justifies the change because you can already see evidence of negative impact, of businesses relocating, local employers being restricted, wage level being relatively poor, affordable housing being limited and all of the social outcomes that come from those changes.

“You could take it and put it in another town. Shrewsbury or a different set of sites that are not in the green belt. What we are saying is we have looked at those options and this is, as far as we are concerned, the best way to tackle the issues Bridgnorth faces in the long term. And we therefore think it is justified to do that. We accept there will be differences of opinion and expect there to be.”

Mr Cooper also said there was pressure from local employers over the need to provide homes for potential workers – a claim which has been questioned by Bridgnorth campaigners.

He said: “In particular in Bridgnorth, local employers are really struggling to retain employees. There are not houses for people on the wages they pay.”

Asked if companies had come forward to raise their concern Mr Cooper said: “Yes, through things like the chamber of commerce and the LEP, these are what spurred the concerns.

“This is an issue that pertains to the local economy in Bridgnorth

“We have had a situation in recent years where we have lost businesses, they have chosen to relocate into Telford or the West Midlands because either they could not get enough space to expand and they needed the space to stay where they were.

“Part of that mix is also access to staff, and it is a bit of a vicious circle and has informed why we have chosen to intervene in the way we have with the local plan.

“Because if we do not make provision for business to remain and grow and expand and attract and retain employees then they will move and that’s really harmful because it exacerbates existing issues you have in Bridgnorth which are about limited employment opportunities for a town of its size and people travelling out of town for work.”

Mr Cooper also said that some of the development which has taken place in Shifnal is the result of not having a plan, and that they are seeking an organised approach to ensure associated infrastructure is built.

He said: “Much of the development in Shifnal now was not planned. It was not in the local development plan. It happened because you do not have five years of housing land set aside so the industry was able to argue it should be able to build on land in Shifnal that had not been allocated for that purpose.”

Source: Shropshire Star

Marketing No Comments

Cabinet minister warns of ‘adverse effect’ of no-deal Brexit

Crashing out of the European Union without a deal would have a “very adverse effect” on the UK’s economy, security and union with Northern Ireland, a Cabinet minister has warned.

David Gauke suggested he would back an extension to Article 50 if a deal between the UK and EU was not reached, and said he expected the Government to act “responsibly” if the current deadlock prevailed.

And the Justice Secretary told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that he hoped it would be made clear in the next 10 days that the UK is in a position to leave with a deal on March 29.

But he said: “If not, then we will have to, in my view, act responsibly and make sure that this country, the economy is protected, our security is protected and the integrity of the Union is protected.

“I have very grave concerns about the consequences of leaving without a deal.”

I have very grave concerns about the consequences of leaving without a deal

David Gauke

Mr Gauke added: “I think the idea of leaving without a deal on the 29th March would be one that would have a very adverse effect, to put it mildly, on our economy, on our security and on the integrity of the Union and I think my position on that is very clear.”

He has previously suggested that Brexit might have to be delayed beyond the scheduled exit date.

Mr Gauke said he hoped a deal would have been reached by the next round of Commons votes on February 27, which has been described as a “high noon” moment for the future of Brexit.

“I would hope and expect that the Government would act responsibly and consider the situation. I hope that by the time we get to that point that there will have been a deal reached with the European Union and the House of Commons.

“If not, I think my position is very clear and I think the consequences of leaving without a deal would not be in the national interest.”

The next round of Brexit votes on February 27 has been described as a ‘high noon’ moment (Kirsty O’Connor/PA)

Business Minister Richard Harrington said he did not believe Theresa May would pursue a no-deal Brexit.

He told BBC Radio 4’s Week In Westminster: “I actually think, when it comes to it, she will know the disaster that a hard Brexit would be for the British economy and I don’t think she’ll do it.

“No Government can stand by and watch a country plummet earthwards because of a political dogma of a minority of a minority, which is what the ERG are and the people that are pressuring on that end.”

Mr Harrington also said he would back moves to give Parliament the power to take no-deal off the table at the end of the month if it seemed likely the UK would crash out of the EU, and could resign if necessary to back the amendment.

And he warned: “There are a significant number of us who feel the same and I think the Chief Whip and the Prime Minister should know that. We don’t make the noise of the ERG but that doesn’t mean quietly that we’re not there.”

Tory former chancellor George Osborne urged Mrs May to take the “threat” of a no-deal Brexit off the table.

He said keeping the option open was “totally unrealistic”, telling the programme: “I also think it’s extremely damaging to our economy at the moment because it’s forcing all sorts of companies around the world to put into action their contingency plans.”

Meanwhile, the Times reported that female MPs have been forced to move house and hire bodyguards because of tensions over Brexit.

The newspaper said one female parliamentarian was advised by police not to travel alone at night, while another was told not to drive herself and a third was warned against running in her local park.

A number of cross-party MPs have reported experiencing abuse in recent weeks.

Among them was pro-EU Conservative MP Anna Soubry, who was called a “Nazi” by pro-Brexit protesters as she was interviewed outside Parliament last month.

Meanwhile, the Government has stepped up its information campaign on Brexit preparations.

On Saturday, the Government began running a series of adverts in local and national newspapers and websites as part of a campaign to explain what leaving the EU will mean for citizens and businesses.

Source: Express and Star