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Hangover from mini-Budget, which ‘accelerated’ housing market slowdown, coming to an end

There are growing signs that the chaos caused by the tax measures outlined by the now former chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng in September last year is finally coming to an end.

The mini-budget of 23 September 2022 – included £45bn of unfunded tax cuts – was followed by days of turmoil on the markets, a fall in the value of the pound and increases in the cost of UK government borrowing and mortgage rates.

The prime minister at the time, Liz Truss, subsequently sacked Kwarteng and acknowledged that large parts of the mini-budget “went further and faster than markets were expecting”.

It is true that a correction in the UK housing market was likely, but the mini-budget caused widespread turmoil that many housing commentators believe was otherwise avoidable.

Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, said: “In our offices, we felt a slowdown was inevitable after property prices rose so far and fast last year, accelerated by the mini-Budget fallout.

Contact us today to speak with a specialist Commercial Finance Broker to discuss how we can assist you.

“However, the increase in activity over the past few months has made us appreciate the end of the hangover is approaching and longer-term prospects are improving.

“Reasons for moving haven’t disappeared, while buyers are gaining confidence from strong employment and stabilising mortgage rates even though the cost of living is still a concern.”

Leaf’s opinions are supposed by the latest RICS data, although the overall tone of the feedback received from respondents to the latest residential market survey is still one of caution towards the sales market, which is reflected in both the headline price and activity indicators. See below.

Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, commented, “The UK housing market has gone from tumultuous to uneventful, which has created a confusing picture. It is tempting to overdo the negativity after the chaos of the mini-Budget, but 2023 looks reassuringly pedestrian compared to recent years.

Read about the UK Housing Market via our Specialist Residential & Buy to Let Division.

“Supply, demand and sales volumes are gradually recovering as buyers and sellers come to terms with higher mortgage rates but prices are likely to fall by a few percent as more distress enters the system. However, a strong jobs market and record levels of housing equity are two reasons the broad direction of travel this year will be sideways.”

Steve Griffiths, COO at TML concurred: “The property market has undergone a significant number of trials and tribulations in recent months, with house prices falling, high interest rates and rising rents. However, while the overall picture may seem gloomy, there are sparks of optimism.

“First-time buyers are reportedly pressing ahead with property plans, with some making compromises to get onto the property ladder as planned, while property investors are taking the opportunity to snap up properties and expand their portfolios.”

By MARC DA SILVA

Source: Property Industry Eye

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Spring Budget 2023: A ‘missed opportunity’ to help the housing market – industry reaction

Changes to the UK housing market were absent from today’s Spring Budget, prompting many from the industry to suggest that Chancellor Jeremy Hunt missed a trick.

A small change which was not announced in the speech was an update to the VAT: DIY Housebuilders Scheme Digitisation Project. The government said it would leglislate to digitise the scheme and extend the time limit from making claims from three to six months.

The scheme allows people who are building their own homes or converting a non-residential property to be seen as comparable to if they had purchased from a developer, meaning they can reclaim VAT on certain goods and services.

The government said the changes should “should improve the overall customer experience and reduce the administrative burden for claimants and HMRC”.

Nothing to address the housing crisis

Richard Fearon, CEO of Leeds Building Society, said there was a “missed opportunity” for the Budget to grow the economy through the homeownership crisis caused by a lack of housing and support for savers.

He added: “While it is particularly positive to see support for families with young children struggling with the cost of childcare, we know that owning your own home also brings huge economic, education and health benefits.

“With the affordability of homeownership now at its worst point for 150 years it is clear that support for first-time buyers must be a key battleground at the next General Election.”

Nigel Purves, co-founder and CEO of Wayhome, agreed that first-time buyers were “tackling the highest cost of homeownership on record” and said it was disappointing that the government had turned its back on them.

Purves said he was not expecting to see another stamp duty incentive but said “a commitment to at least building more homes would have been a start.

He also said a stamp duty law to equalise the different home buying schemes could have been helpful, so people who bought their home in stages would not be charged the same rate as second home buyers.

Brian Murphy, head of lending at Mortgage Advice Bureau, said the extension to the Energy Price Guarantee was welcomed, but it was yet to be seen whether any support to improve the energy efficiency of homes would be coming.

No incentives for buyers

Nick Chadbourne, CEO at LMS, said it was concerning that there were no announcements to stimulate either the residential or buy-to-let sides of the market, particularly considering the turmoil caused by the last Chancellor’s mini Budget.

He suggested increasing housing stock by loosening planning restrictions and changing the policies that deter landlords.

Jonathan Samuels, CEO of Octane Capital, said: “The government has made numerous legislative changes to ‘improve’ the rental market at the expense of the nation’s landlords, changes that have ironically led to higher rents, less accommodation and lower standards.

“We were hoping that they had finally realised the error of their ways and wanted to once again tempt buy-to-let investors back into the fold.

“Unfortunately, this hasn’t been the case and, with them also pushing forward with changes to Capital Gains Tax allowances, we expect to see more landlords exit the sector as a result.”

Nick Sanderson, CEO at Audley Group, added: “Another opportunity for housing reform has sailed on by. An innovative Chancellor would have used his time at the dispatch box to set out reforms that place as much emphasis on later living as first-time buyers.”

He said a stamp duty holiday would have been “unrealistic” but a reform should have been considered, adding: “if there is no fluidity, people stay in family homes that are too big and unsuitable for them.”

Jonathan Stinton, head of intermediary relationships at Coventry Building Society, said: “This has turned out to be the budget where home buyers were forgot.

“The Chancellor’s had a lot of pressure to help those struggling with the cost of living, while avoiding a repeat of the events in September, but that doesn’t mean support for home buyers should be ignored.

“The government can’t singlehandedly erase all the challenges homebuyers are facing, but they can certainly play their part. Even something as small as making the new stamp duty thresholds permanent would have been a bonus, but to see nothing is incredibly disappointing.”

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Impact on mortgages

Although nothing about the housing market was explicitly announced, it was noted that some of the changes could still influence mortgage lending.

Adrian Anderson, founder of Anderson Harris, said the expansion of free childcare offered help to working parents.

He added: “Childcare fees of potential borrowers are scrutinised by the banks and have a real impact on the affordability capacity for those seeking mortgages. Childcare fees were making some families unmortgageable.

“This expansion of free childcare in 2024 will make unmortgageable families – due to childcare costs – mortgageable, enabling them to get on the ladder or secure the right property to meet their needs.”

Will Hale, CEO of Key, said encouraging more people to work longer bore some consideration for the mortgage sector.

He added: “If more people anticipate working well into what was once retirement age, then we need to consider whether we have enough flexibility built within products aimed at older customers to allow repayments to be adjusted according to the different income levels they receive in employment, part-tirement and retirement.

“The later life lending industry already meets many of these needs but taking the time to consider whether we can do more to encourage active management of debt as people age, provide more opportunities to access housing equity and boost the use of new – and potential – flexibilities, needs to be front of mind.

“What customers expect is changing and we need to consider how we best support this.”

Read about the UK Housing Market via our Specialist Residential & Buy to Let Division.

Not a bad thing to be ignored

Paresh Raja, CEO of Market Financial Solutions, said although there are housing market issues which need attention, Hunt prioritised “other pressing concerns”.

He added: “In truth, the property market could benefit from the Chancellor’s prudent economic approach. While there may not have been any noteworthy policies or investments relating specifically to property, his efforts to combat the cost-of-living crisis and bring much-needed stability to the economy should be welcomed.

“We saw how tumultuous the effects of the mini-Budget were back in September. Hunt has favoured a cautious approach, and the property market will likely benefit from a sense of economic calm, particularly if inflation continues to fall and interest rate hikes come to an end.”

Andy Sommerville, director at Search Acumen, said the Budget was one that “gives with one hand and takes with the other”.

“Investment Zones provide the potential for deregulation and simplification of the planning system, which will be attractive to developers and a potential stimulus for local economies, while tax incentives will support the occupier market in these locations,” he added.

Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, said while the industry wanted to see more from the Budget with regards to housing, ““In some ways it could be seen as a positive Budget in that the Chancellor left the housing sector well alone”.

He added: “Housing makes such a significant contribution to economic prosperity due to its multiplier effect so is sensitive to even small changes.

“More specifically, the housing market is all about confidence and sometimes you can do more damage by tinkering so we will give him a B-plus for effort and not doing anything which could have been harmful and compromised activity.”

By Shekina Tuahene

Source: Mortgage Solutions

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UK inflation hits 41-year high following surge in energy prices

SOARING energy bills sent UK inflation to its highest level since 1981 in October as the cost-of-living crisis continues to hit households, according to official figures.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that inflation jumped to a higher than expected 11.1% in October – the highest rate for 41 years and up from 10.1% in September, as gas and electricity costs rocketed.

That exceeds the 10.7% rise most economists had predicted. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has claimed getting inflation under control would require “tough but necessary decisions on tax and spending to help balance the books”.

He is set to lay out his autumn Budget on Thursday.

The ONS said gas prices have leaped nearly 130% higher over the past year, while electricity has risen by around 66%.

The SNP have said the figures show households across Scotland “are paying the price for continued Westminster control”.

The party’s Shadow Chancellor Alison Thewliss said: “These latest figures must force the Chancellor to deliver meaningful financial support to households and businesses.

“Tomorrow’s budget must deliver a boost to incomes, energy bill support for low- and middle-income families, a real living wage, and extra investment in the NHS to help people weather this Tory-made cost of living storm.

“However, once again, households and businesses across Scotland are paying the price for continued Westminster control.

“With both the Tories and Labour hell bent on ‘making Brexit work’, there can be no doubt that independence is the only way to escape the long-term damage of Westminster and Brexit.”

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Families were also hit by rising costs across a range of food items, which also pushed up the cost of living to eye-watering levels.

Elsewhere, the Scottish Greens have slammed the “cruel and incompetent” Tory government for runaway inflation.

The party’s economy spokesperson Maggie Chapman said: “These are not just abstract figures; they represent people’s expenses and wellbeing.

“They can be the difference between a household or family being able to eat or not.

“With temperatures falling and bills increasing, millions of people are looking at a long, cold winter and, with even more cuts expected to be announced in tomorrow’s autumn Budget, things are set to get even harder.”

The jump in inflation – the biggest leap since March to April – comes despite the government energy support which had sought to limit Ofgem’s energy price cap at around £2500 a year.

Read about the UK Housing Market via our Specialist Residential & Buy to Let Division

Chapman continued: “It is the cost of a reckless Tory Brexit and a cruel and incompetent government that is well aware of the pain it is inflicting but simply doesn’t care.

“If they cared, they would have spent the last 12 years investing in the infrastructure that would have prevented this situation.

“But they chose, instead, to re-inflate the housing bubble and impose austerity. The Tories are not the answer to this economic crisis.

“We must choose and then create a better future that does not have us shackled to the disaster that is Westminster.”

Hunt blamed the impact of the pandemic and Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine for the spike in prices.

Chief economist at the ONS Grant Fitzner said: “Rising gas and electricity prices drove headline inflation to its highest level for over 40 years, despite the Energy Price Guarantee.”

He added: “Increases across a range of food items also pushed up inflation.

“These were partially offset by motor fuels, where average petrol prices fell on the month, while the price for diesel rose taking the disparity in price between the two fuels to the highest on record.

“There was further evidence that costs facing businesses are rising more slowly, driven by crude oil and petroleum prices.”

By Adam Robertson

Source: The National

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How to make your budget stretch further as a startup

So, you’ve just launched your business and are optimistic about its prospects. You’ve got a great product, a passionate team, and some solid early traction. But there’s one problem: you’re low on cash.

Stretching your budget is going to be essential if you want to keep moving forward. Here, we’ve outlined some of the cost-saving measures that can help fledgling business owners get their venture off to a flying start.

Reduce your SaaS spend
One area where many startups unknowingly overspend is on cloud-based software, or software as a service (SaaS). While SaaS products can be excellent tools for boosting productivity and efficiency, they can also be expensive.

A report by SaaS purchasing platform Vertice found that 90% of buyers pay more than they need on software, wasting money on redundant applications, excess licenses and overpriced contracts.

However, there are some ways that you can optimise your SaaS spend without compromising on quality or functionality. For example, many tools offer a variety of features, but you may not need all of them. If you know exactly which features you need and which you do not, you may be able to negotiate a better contract by only paying for those you need.

Furthermore, some providers offer flexible pricing models that allow you to scale your subscription up or down according to your needs. This can be a great way to save money if you only require the software for a short period of time or if your business is seasonal.

Utilise your startup status
According to Harvard Business Review, startups have an untapped power often admired by investors, business founders, and customers alike. Motivated by the challenge of helping to create something new and successful, many vendors and consumers are drawn to support small businesses.

Ondeck explains that startups also often have more leverage than they realise when dealing with suppliers: “Many vendors offer simple win-win ways to make your relationships more profitable for you — and for them.” Remember, they want your business just as much as you want theirs — so don’t be afraid to ask for discounts or extended payment terms.

Furthermore, if your startup has been trading for less than 36 months, it may be eligible for a government-backed startup loan, as well as up to 12 months of mentoring. Alternatively, depending on your industry, some commercial properties are eligible for business rate cuts from local councils. There are a variety of schemes available, such as small business rate relief, if the value of your property is less than £15,000.

Contact us today to speak with a specialist Commercial Finance Broker to discuss how we can assist you

Take advantage of low-cost marketing methods
Marketing on a shoestring budget can be tough, but it’s not impossible. There are plenty of creative ways to get the word out about your business without spending a fortune.

For example, make the most out of user generated content (UGC) — original, brand-specific material developed by customers and published on social media or other platforms. It can be content of any type, but usually comes in the form of images, videos, reviews, or testimonials.

By cutting through the cacophony of brands competing against each other with in-house content, UGC is favoured for its ability to capture attention, hyper–personalise the shopping experience, and increase sales.

But, best of all, creating and managing UGC is cheap, if not free. As Ucraft explains: “You do have some smart investments to make, but they will not likely reach a traditional marketing budget.” From giveaways and branded hashtags to product reviews and mentions, your startup can easily reap the rewards of this powerful and pursestring-friendly marketing tactic.

Read about the UK Housing Market via our Specialist Residential & Buy to Let Division

By John Saunders

Source: London Loves Business

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What did the Budget mean for the north’s economy and property market?

THE global and UK economies are in fragile times. A softening economic climate, falling stock prices, oil price collapse, ongoing Brexit negotiations and the most recent outbreak of Covid-19 has made a precarious global backdrop increasingly difficult. Locally, the recent collapse of FlyBe presents new challenges for ensuring regional connectivity.

Amid these challenges outlined, the new Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak, released the economic outlook and government spending plans for the UK.

The Chancellor’s opening speech rightly acknowledged the most pressing healthcare challenges and the likely ‘temporary disruption’ to the economy. He committed to a £30bn plan to deal with the coronavirus and hinted at additional funding for the NHS if necessary – a ‘whatever it takes’ approach. The government further committed to covering the cost of employee’s sick pay for up to two weeks in businesses with fewer than 250 employees. Whilst welcome, it’s worth noting that statutory sick pay is approximately 20% of average wages in the UK compared to closer to 70% in other European economies.

From a property perspective, the government will introduce a two per cent stamp duty tax surcharge on non-UK residents buying residential property in England and Northern Ireland from next year. This policy is largely aimed at controlling house price inflation, notably in the most expensive areas in Southern England. Any money raised from the surcharge has been committed to address rough sleeping.

Following a growing recognition of the need for investment in infrastructure, the Chancellor announced a £640bn boost for capital spending on roads, rail, broadband, housing and research over the next five years. This will provide a £210mn boost to the Northern Ireland Executive block grant in 2020-21 in addition to further funding allocations for remaining City and Growth deals.

The economic growth forecasts were produced with the sizeable caveat of development before the Coronavirus outbreak and should be viewed with due caution, particularly in the short term. The government state they can be treated as ‘informative’ for the medium term. Nevertheless, modest growth of 1.1% is forecast this year and is set to average 1.5% by 2024, significantly below long-term average rates.

Leaving the Budget aside, radical intervention from the Bank of England saw interest rates cut from 0.75% to 0.25%, the lowest level on record in the Bank’s 325-year history.

Lower interest rates are used by central Banks to encourage borrowing at lower rates to stimulate economic growth. Prior to the 2008 financial crash, interest rates were over 5% before falling to 0.25%. This also has the effect of lowering mortgage costs and may reduce the mortgage bill for a minority of homeowners who aren’t on fixed rates. Other homeowners will have to wait and see how their loan provider reacts given how competitive mortgage rates currently are. For savers and businesses with larger reserves there is likely to be little change given low returns in recent years.

This may be a temporary measure to support the economy and protect businesses and in turn the employment of people. Previous guidance from the Bank of England stated their objective to gradually increase interest rates over the next three years. This too assumes a recovery in global growth and a ‘smooth Brexit’.

As economic developments go, recent events are significantly driving change across the world. The next few months are likely to see continued turbulence as the downside risks mount.

By Jordan Buchanan

Source: Irish News

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What the Budget means for SMEs – all the reaction

Chancellor Rishi Sunak has announced the government’s coronavirus response which includes the promise of emergency aid worth £1bn backed by a “co-ordinated, coherent and comprehensive three point plan” with business at its heart.

He says the response is “temporary, timely and targeted” and has been drawn up with the help of the Bank of England which cut its rates by 0.5 points this morning.

Key measures announced include: For SMEs with fewer than 250 employees, the cost of providing Statutory Sick Pay to any employee off work with coronavirus will – for the first 14 days – be refunded by the government. This will be worth more than £2bn for up to two million businesses, the Chancellor says.

MEASURES INCLUDE BUSINESS LOANS, SUPPORT ON SICK PAY AND THE ABOLITION OF BUSINESS RATES

Businesses are to get a new ‘interruption loan’ scheme guaranteed by the government Banks will offer loans of up to £1.2m to support SMEs. The government will guarantee up to 80 per cent of losses with no fees. This, he says, will be worth up to £1bn in “attractive working capital loans”.

He will also abolish business rates altogether for this year for retailers, in a tax cut worth more than £1bn. Any company eligible for small business rates relief will be allowed a £3,000 cash grant – a £2bn injection for 700,000 small businesses.

The Bank of England slashed the base interest rate from 0.75% to 0.25% this morning to shore up the economy hours after Health Minister Nadine Dorries was diagnosed with COVID-19.

Sunak told ministers at a meeting this morning coronavirus was “front and centre” and the Budget would “make the UK one of the best placed economies in the world to manage the potential impact”.

HMRC’s Time To Pay service will also be scaled up.

He said that Entrepreneurs’ Relief will be retained, but the lifetime allowance will be reduced from £10 million to £1 million, one announcement that brought immediate criticism.

Jamie Morrison, head of private client at accountancy firm HW Fisher said: “This change is as good as abolishing it completely and this is a huge mistake. While a sensible change following proper consultation would be welcomed, this is a step too far.

SHOULD THE CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK WORSEN, JUST HOW MUCH ASSISTANCE CAN THE GOVERNMENT REALISTICALLY PROVIDE TO HELP BUSINESSES AND THEIR EMPLOYEES?”

“By cutting the relief entrepreneurs will only be able to benefit up to £100k during their lifetime.

“This is not enough to drive support of creativity and entrepreneurship. Businesses need consistency and this budget needs to look beyond the immediate implications of coronavirus to provide a vision beyond the next 12 months.”

John Ellmore, Director of Know Your Money said moves to support the self-employed offers some assurance to those that make up the ‘gig economy’ and support to help businesses implement self-isolation measures was welcoming.

He added: “That said, we are still left wondering as to what the long-term solution will be. Should the Coronavirus outbreak worsen, just how much assistance can the Government realistically provide to help businesses and their employees?”

“Let’s not forget the financial challenges that self-isolation can also pose to workers. It is estimated there are 2,000,000 people in the UK with no sick pay who may not be able to afford two-weeks of self-isolation.”

Andrew Mawson, founder of Advanced Workplace Associates makes the point that having the odd ‘work from home’ day is one thing, but managing large numbers of people working at home for a prolonged period of time is quite another.

“There is a lot we take for granted when we’re in the office. When we’re working away, we need to consciously develop new leadership and workership practices,” he said.

“Businesses should adapt and grow or they will diminish. Whether the required change is driven by global economics, workplace cultural changes, or imminent global pandemics such as coronavirus, businesses are having to change their ways of working. Sometimes in an instant.

BUSINESSES SHOULD ADAPT AND GROW OR THEY WILL DIMINISH. WHETHER THE REQUIRED CHANGE IS DRIVEN BY GLOBAL ECONOMICS, WORKPLACE CULTURAL CHANGES, OR IMMINENT GLOBAL PANDEMICS

“There are all sorts of reasons why people can’t get to the office. The trick is to recognise that home or remote working isn’t necessarily a bad thing.”

Mike Hampson, CEO, of Bishopsgate Financial said: “Have to hand it to Sunak, from business rates to investment in infrastructure to contingency funds for employees and SMEs amid Coronavirus Crisis delivering his first budget its sensible stuff by the chancellor.

“Increasing investment in R&D to a record £22bn a year, which is the fastest, and the largest increase in R&D ever higher than the US, China, France and Japan. In addition, significant investments in transport and technology infrastructure should provide an economic boost. Good news about Coronavirus loan scheme. Great support for #SME. However, will it be easy to access for SMEs to access these promised funds? As an SME getting loans could be painful, long and challenging.

“It’ll be interesting to see where the money is coming from when the details are published. This budget together with the earlier BoE interest rate cuts should combine to create a positive mood for the country in a time of uncertainty.”

Peter Webb, MD of Electronic Temperature Instruments, the UK’s largest digital thermometer manufacturer, said he welcomes the SSP announcement.

“These are unprecedented times and businesses of all sizes needed reassurance and a dose of confidence in order to stabilise their business and support their workforces,” he said. “What this does is it confirms the governments’ commitment to getting behind British business throughout this crisis and helps stabilise employment and supports productivity.”

Source: SME Web