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Fight or flight? Landlords split over prospects for the buy-to-let sector

Landlords are almost evenly split between those pressing on despite tax changes and others heading for the exit.

Analysis by peer-to-peer property lender Octopus Choice of more than 1,000 buy-to-let investors found that 56% want to keep or buy more rental properties in contrast to 44% who are looking to sell.

A quarter blamed falling yields or tax changes, while a fifth said they were leaving due to cooling house prices.

Another 60% said property management had become a burden and 61% undervalued the costs involved.

Millennial landlords – those aged 18 to 35 – were more inclined to sell than stay with two thirds planning to offload one or more of their properties. This compares to 29% of over-55s.

Younger landlords were also more likely to admit that managing a buy-to-let has become a hassle, at 81% compared to 39% of investors over 55.

The analysis also found that London landlords have been hardest hit by tax changes.

The platform built a model to analyse the income and costs associated with buying, running and selling an additional property over an eight-year period, including repairs, mortgage charges and annual agency fees of 15% of rent.

It used the 2017 average UK house price growth statistics and rental yield figures from LiveYield, revealing that a landlord with an average property in London worth £475,000 would have to sell it for £590,000, a 2.46% return, just to break even.

In contrast, those in the east midlands and Scotland have seen growth from their portfolios of above 8%.

Sam Handfield-Jones, head of Octopus Choice, said: “Brits still have an incessant love affair with bricks and mortar – but the hassle and cost of buy-to-let is a source of growing frustration, and some landlords may find that their once reliable day-to-day income is becoming harder and harder to come by.

“But this isn’t the case across all parts of the market, with money still to be made from the right property in the right region.”

Overall return after eight years, by region

 

London

-2.46%

Wales

0.26%

North East

1.72%

East

2.19%

South East

2.29%

Yorkshire & Humber

3.36%

South West

3.91%

North West

3.96%

West Midlands

6.47%

East Midlands

8.18%

Scotland

8.82%

Source: Property Industry Eye

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Three more years of decline in buy-to-let sector, forecasts bank

The buy-to-let sector is set to continue declining until 2021, says a new report, which also forecasts a further price correction in the London housing market.

The number of buy-to-let mortgage approvals for purchase dropped in 2016 by 13%, followed by a drop of 27% last year.

The new report, compiled by the Centre for Economics and Business Research for Shawbrook Bank, says there will be further falls as the sector adjusts to a raft of tax changes and new regulation.

The bank says that government policies have had a marked effect.

It expects that the market will stabilise in 2021, which will be followed by returns to growth in the following two years.

Shawbrook expects that strong tenancy demand will continue, and that supply will be underpinned by professional landlords.

The report also says that London house prices could drop further.

It says: “London has long dominated the BTL sector.

“But a flat housing market and limited capacity for rental growth in the capital means that other places in the country offer better yields to investors, especially cities with large student populations.

“Brexit adds a further layer of uncertainty: with a number of City jobs at stake, London’s housing market might be in for a further price correction.”

Source: Property Industry Eye

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Buy-to-let sector to dampen for three years

Buy-to-let mortgage approvals are expected to fall for the next three years, a report by Shawbrook Bank and the Centre for Economics and Business Research has predicted.

Buy-to-let mortgage approvals fell by 13% in 2016 and 27% in 2017 – and the report anticipated more drops, albeit at a slower rate owing to a core of professional landlords in the market.

More positively, approvals are expected to stabilise in 2021 and increase in 2022 and 2023.

Policy interventions dampening the market include the 3% stamp duty surcharge, reduction in mortgage tax relief and stress tests from the Prudential Regulation Authority.

Karen Bennett (pictured), ‎managing director for commercial mortgages, said: “Whilst the series of government and regulatory changes have had a significant impact on the sector, we have seen the impact felt more heavily amongst the “amateur” landlord community which has presented growth opportunities for professional investors.

“Recent political turbulence has had an amplifying effect on investor confidence but positively, the market remains buoyant for those with a long-term strategy who draw upon specialist advice to fully understand the impact of these policy shifts.

“Regulatory change that supports the public interest is not something to be afraid of, and we predict that this high performing asset class will remain a fundamental strength over the long-term provided lenders continue to adapt and change alongside it.”

Source: Mortgage Introducer

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Incentives For Longer Tenancies Favoured By Buy To Let Sector

Proposals for incentives for property investors offering longer tenancies are being welcomed by the buy to let sector.

The much-publicised consultation on the matter of three year tenancies has recently seen the government propose a number of options in order to aid the implementation of the three-year tenancy model. The proposals come in response to a growing demand from families and older people for longer tenancies in the private rental market. The government had suggested that it would be consulting on plans to have three-year tenancies as standard, with a six-month break clause and certain exemptions for students.

One of the options proposed by the government is financial incentives. The government argues that these could be ‘quicker to implement’ than mandatory three-year tenancy agreements.

Policy director for the Residential Landlords Association, David Smith, spoke out about the matter: ‘With landlords having faced a barrage of tax increases we believe that smart taxation, such as that being proposed today, would provide the longer term homes to rent many families and older people want. We would warn against making it a statutory requirement to introduce three year tenancies. Many tenants simply do not want to be tied to a property long term. It is vital that the market is able to provide the flexibility that many need in order to swiftly access new work and educational opportunities.’

In contrast, Build To Rent operators were in support of the government’s proposed three year tenancies in the private rental sector. Managing director at Moda, a BTR developer, Johnny Caddick said: ‘It makes sense that residents are given security of tenure. So we support these moves provided people have flexibility if they only wish to stay for a year or two. We need a customer-centric rental market if people are to grow confidence in the property sector. That has to mean encouraging more rental development through the planning system that is willing to provide better homes with no risk of eviction because the landlord wishes to sell or move back in.’

Source: Residential Landlord