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HMRC: April resi transactions highest for that month since 2007

HMRC’s provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate for UK residential transactions in April 2021 was 111,260, the highest total in April since 2007, when transactions were 126,450.
However, this is a drop from the March 2021 figure of 190,980.

Provisional non-seasonally adjusted UK residential transactions in April 2021 increased 197.8% year-on-year, but a substantial amount of this difference is due to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the April 2020 statistics.

In addition, the non-seasonally adjusted estimate of 392,170 for UK residential transactions during quarter one of 2021 was the highest Q1 total since the introduction of stamp duty statistics in their current format in 2005, and the highest quarterly total since Q2 2006 (419,270).

Due to the pandemic, quarter two of 2020 was the lowest quarterly total for UK residential transactions since Q1 2009.

Provisional estimates of UK residential transactions in April 2021 have shown an impact from the temporarily increased nil rate bands for stamp duty and and Land Transaction Tax (LTT).

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Following year-on-year decreases in April and May 2020 of around 50%, caused by the pandemic, non-seasonally adjusted UK residential transactions have gradually increased, peaking in March 2021 with a provisional estimate of 173,410.

For non-residential transactions, non-seasonally figures in April 2021 increased 94.4% year-on-year, but again this will largely be due to the effects of the pandemic on last year’s data.

Provisional estimates of UK non-residential transactions in April 2021, 10,520 non-seasonally adjusted and 10,160 seasonally adjusted, are similar to levels reported during April in recent years, excluding 2020.

Following yearly decreases in April and May 2020 of around 45% caused by economic effects around the pandemic, non-residential transactions have followed a generally increasing trend during subsequent months.

Joshua Elash said: “Transactions are significantly down from March due to a large number of purchases completing that month in anticipation of the stamp duty holiday expiring.

“It evidences how significant an impact the scheme is having on buyer appetite and confidence.

“April was always going to be softer in terms of number of transactions.

“The annual rebound has, however, been stunning.

“A year ago, the first lockdown bit into the property market hard, and this comeback is nothing short of astonishing.

“All in all, the data continues to support a growing argument that stamp duty should be abolished completely so as to continue to encourage transactions, upward mobility, and to support the economy.”

Mark Harris said: “April’s dip in transactions compared with March is likely to be at least partly due to the anticipated end of the stamp duty holiday, before its extension was announced, which resulted in buyers taking their foot off the gas to get deals done.

“Now that the holiday has been extended, activity has picked up again.

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“Compared with April last year, when the housing market was closed to business thanks to the pandemic, there has been a massive 179.5% jump in transactions.

“That reflects the grinding to a halt of the market, as well as the surge in demand created by COVID, with more people bringing forward moves to the country and a growing desire for more space, both inside and out.

“On the lending front, lenders have plenty of cash and are keen to lend.

“There are some very competitive products, and with Nationwide returning to 95% LTV mortgages at lower rates than its competitors, it is a good time to borrow.”

Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, says: “Although these figures reflect many sales agreed several months ago, they show a reduction in activity as many buyers did not expect to still take advantage of the stamp duty holiday.

“However, activity has picked up strongly since the deadline was extended, allowing many to continue where they left off, as well as encourage new entrants to the market.

“Transactions are always a better measure of housing market strength than prices which tend to fluctuate.

“On the ground, supply is still a problem even though listings have improved as rollout of the second jab in particular is encouraging sellers to make their properties available.

“It is not only some sellers who are trying to profit from the home buying frenzy but certain solicitors are charging exorbitant fees to take on work, whereas others are working evenings and weekends to make sure they get over the line in time.”

By Jessica Bird

Source: Mortgage Introducer

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Residential transactions remain high as SDLT holiday deadline approaches

The number of UK residential transactions, on a seasonally adjusted basis, rose by 24.1% between January 2020 and January 2021, according to the latest property transactions data by HMRC.

This annual rise comes as the stamp duty holiday deadline fast approaches on the 31 March.

Despite the annual rise, on a monthly basis the number of residential transactions dropped by 2.4%.

Looking to the number of non-residential transactions in the UK during January, this figure fell 8.2% year-on-year to 8,980.

In addition, between December 2020 and January 2021, the number of non-residential transactions declined by 3.6%.

The provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate of UK residential transactions in January 2021 was 98,830, 17.9% higher than January 2020 and 25.2% lower than December 2020.

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Furthermore, the non-seasonally adjusted estimate of UK non-residential transactions in January 2021 was 7,680, 14.6% lower than January 2020.

The data also shows that the level non-residential transactions was 28.0% lower than December 2020.

Mike Scott, chief analyst at Yopa, said: “New figures from HMRC show that the number of home purchases completed in January was still very high, as buyers rushed to beat the 31 March stamp duty deadline.

“We expect that the number of purchases will remain very high until March, and then drop off for a few months before returning to normal.

“The year as a whole is likely to see a higher number of purchases than in recent years, perhaps as high as 1.3 million.

“The housing market has remained open during the recent and current lockdowns, but many people are still waiting for life to return closer to normal before they make their next move.

“After a brief slowdown in the second quarter after the stamp duty holiday ends, we anticipate a very active housing market in the second half of this year.”

Read about the UK Housing Market via our Specialist Residential & Buy to Let Division

David Whittaker, chief executive of Keystone Property Finance, added: “Today’s figures suggest that home buyers who are unlikely to make the stamp duty holiday deadline are taking a ‘wait and see’ approach to purchases, delaying applications until the Chancellor providers greater clarity over the future of the tax holiday.

“However, despite the uncertainty, second properties are making up a significant proportion of the continued rising demand.

“Data from Hamptons International reveals second home sales increased by 58% in January 2021 compared to the same month last year.

“This follows a period of buoyancy in the buy-to-let market as landlords look to expand their portfolios, while taking advantage of an increasing number of buy-to-let products on the market.

“However, being a landlord brings with it a series of challenges, not least the recent and upcoming regulatory and tax changes.

“Qualified advice from mortgage brokers is crucial in helping landlords to navigate the market and access the right mortgage for their unique circumstances.”

Nick Barnes, head of research at Chestertons, said: “Following a record December, the sales market has maintained momentum throughout January 2021.

“Compared to January last year, Chestertons registered 9% more instructions, indicating that sellers remain keen to move home.

“This is further highlighted by a 47% year-on-year increase in properties currently on the market.

“Equally, we have agreed 27% more sales, largely driven by house hunters rushing to meet the stamp duty holiday deadline but also possibly reflecting a desire to beat any potential shutting down of the housing market as proposed by the Labour party.

“In spite of lockdown restrictions, there are still plenty of households who are keen to move, which is further boosted by the roll-out of the vaccine.

“Boris Johnson’s announcement of the slow easing of lockdown restrictions might bring a new spark to the housing market as people are eager to return to some form of normality.

“So far in February, Chestertons has seen a 73% increase in sales compared to the same period in February 2020.”

By Jake Carter

Source: Mortgage Introducer

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