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Political uncertainty ‘takes toll’ on Scottish commercial and industrial property market

The “protracted uncertainty” caused by the ongoing Brexit standoff is taking its toll on commercial and industrial activity in Scotland, according to the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS).

The results of the Q4 2018 RICS Construction and Infrastructure Market Survey show that growth in workloads within Scotland’s commercial and industrial segments declined with a net balance of -14% and -7% of respondents reporting a drop in activity, respectively, during Q4 2018.

However, the activity across construction sectors varied, with a net balance of +17% of contributors to the RICS survey reporting growth in private housing workloads across Scotland. Public sector workloads were mixed, but surveyors reported growth in housing with a net balance of 8% seeing an acceleration to growth in public sector housing. Infrastructure workloads also remained steady with a net balance of 8% seeing a rise in workloads over the quarter.

Anecdotal evidence from respondents suggests that the housing market slowdown, coupled with ongoing policy ambiguity related to Brexit, is weighing on business investment decisions. When asked how business enquiries for new projects or contracts have fared in the past three months, 10% more respondents across the UK reported an increase rather than a decrease compared to 24% in Q3. Growth in repair and maintenance work remains modestly positive.

Looking at factors across the UK constraining activity, financial constraints are reported by 78% of surveyors to be by far the most significant impediment to building. Difficulties with access to bank finance and credit, along with cash flow and liquidity challenges, are often cited reasons alongside generally less favourable cyclical market conditions. When asked how credit conditions have changed over the past three months, 20% more respondents report a deterioration rather than improvement.

Shortage of skilled labour continues to pose a significant challenge almost half of respondents in Scotland, particularly with regard to professional services such as quantity surveying. The challenges for the procurement of labour differ by role. Looking at the UK as a whole, 64% of surveyors expressed the view that workers from the EU were not important to their hiring requirements of surveying professionals, and the solution to this issue remains firmly domestic within the training and education areas with 68% of contributors to this survey citing education as the most effective policy tool in addressing the current skills dilemma, compared to 15% for immigration.

However, as the Brexit deadline draws near it should be noted that EU nationals are an important part of the mix particularly with regards to addressing the skills issue in increasing capacity to build on construction sites. With EU nationals accounting for eight percent of the UK’s construction workforce, this accounts for well over 175 thousand people, according to recent RICS figures.

In terms of geographical breakdown across the UK, workload growth is now reported to be decelerating across all regions. London and the Southeast were particularly affected with a lack of growth across the private housing, commercial and industrial subsectors buoyed by positive momentum in infrastructure and public spending. Over the past three months, new business enquiries were strongest in the North (+24%) and weakest in Northern Ireland (-21%). Meanwhile, year-ahead expectations for workloads and hiring are the most resilient in Scotland with net balances of +38% and 31%, respectively.

Tender price expectations over the next twelve months throughout the UK are expected to be squeezed with 51% and 40% more respondents envisaging greater price pressures in the building and civil engineering areas, respectively. The expected increase in tender prices reflects higher input costs and ongoing competitive bidding pressures for businesses. Expectations on industry profit margins have been flat for the second consecutive quarter in Q4 2018.

Jeffrey Matsu, RICS senior economist, said: “The protracted uncertainty engendered by the Brexit impasse is becoming ever more apparent with workloads in the commercial and industrial sectors grinding to a standstill. While the challenges are particularly acute in London, the additional £1 billion in additional HRA borrowing to fund council housing has begun to stimulate activity. The subsequent scrapping of the cap in last year’s Budget has the potential to accelerate this positive trend in the public sector over the coming years.

“Capacity remains an ongoing constraint for activity more broadly, however, with surveyors reporting a ramping up of new hiring even despite a moderation in business enquiries. Continued access to a qualified pool of non-UK workers to support this growth will be as important as ever, particularly for work on construction sites.”

Source: Scottish Construction now

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Scottish commercial property sector outperforming UK average

RETURNS on Scottish commercial real estate are continuing to push ahead of the UK average, according to a new report.

Data released by leading property consultant CBRE reveals that Scottish commercial real estate achieved a total return of 1.7% in the third quarter of 2018. This is a rebound from the 1.4% recorded in the second quarter, and a return to the same rate of return in Q1.

While there remains a 120 basis point difference between the annual total returns, with Scotland at 7.0% compared to the UK’s 8.2%, three sectors in Scotland – offices, retail and alternatives – are now ahead of the UK as a whole. This is most noticeable in high street retail with annual total returns of 6.4% in Scotland, versus 4.0% in the rest of the UK.

The one sector bucking the trend is industrials, where superior rental performance in London and south-east England continues to fuel exceptionally strong returns. This has helped push the UK industrial total return to 19.3% for the 12 months to the end of September, compared to 8.4% for Scottish industrials.

The main surprise this quarter in Scotland was a marked improvement for the retail sector. Total returns increased to 1%, a rise of 0.7% from Q2. However, the sector still has the lowest overall return in Q3, behind offices (2.2%), alternative property (2.4%) and industrials (1.9%).

For the third quarter in succession, the annual Scottish all property total return was virtually unchanged at 7%.

Individual sectors have shown more change, in particular offices and industrials. Office annual returns were the only ones to improve over the quarter, rising to 8.6% for the year to the end of September.

In contrast, industrial returns fell slightly to 8.4%, with the alternative property remaining the only sector with double-digit returns over the year (12.6%), well ahead of the weakest performer retail, at 4.0%.

Martyn Brown, a director in CBRE’s investment team, was encouraged by the results. He commented: “Unsurprisingly, the office sector was the best performing asset class in Scotland during Q3, driven by the strong capital value growth achieved in several noticeable investment sales.

“International buyers continue to be active in Scotland, attracted by the softer yields and higher returns on offer when compared to similar investment deals south of

the border.”

There is also now a marked difference between the performances of offices across Scotland’s three largest cities. Glasgow offices, at 7.6%, are positioned close to the all property total return, while Aberdeen offices saw a 4.1% return, continuing the recent period of improving quarter-on-quarter returns.

For the retail sector, returns in Aberdeen have technically slipped back into negative territory with an annual return on -0.3%. For Glasgow and Edinburgh, returns are higher, with Glasgow seeing the best performance of 8.2%, just ahead of its office returns.

A total of £505 million of stock was transacted in Scotland during the third quarter of the year, down from £578m achieved in Q2. This now sits at a similar level to the volumes achieved at the same time in 2017.

Overall, there was £1.77 billion spent across Scotland during the first nine months of 2018, a 27% rise from the same period in 2017. With over £670m, the office sector has seen more money directed towards it than any other commercial sector. Meanwhile, more than £300m has been spent on retail warehouses.

Source: The National