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Why new homes are key to UK prosperity

The U.K. faces a significant housing challenge. In simple terms, there are not enough new homes being built each year to meet the demands of the population.

The U.K. government has set a target to see 300,000 new homes built annually by the mid-2020s in an attempt to solve the national housing shortage. So there is serious work to be done.

Lloyds Banking Group has an important role to play in helping people across Britain to get a home. The organization has made several pledges around housing as part of its most recent prosper plan and is making good progress towards them. A healthy housing market is a key indicator of broader economic strength and that’s why housing is core to the Group’s commitment to help Britain prosper.

Forming a new type of partnership

Housing Growth Partnership (HGP) is a social-impact equity investor. It was established in 2015 as a joint venture between Lloyds Banking Group and Homes England. The formation was unique — the first housing focused public—private partnership with the U.K. government.

When we established the partnership, we had two very clear and specific goals in mind: to support the sustainable growth of regional residential developers across the U.K. through investment and mentoring; and to accelerate housing delivery. We know that one of the chief obstacles preventing small firms from growing and developing in the housing industry is capital constraints, and we established the partnership to help with this. HGP invests in residential projects, freeing up housebuilder equity that can be used on other schemes.

HGP was founded with an initial £100 million of seed capital and, following additional investment, now has nearly £1 billion-worth of homes under construction across the U.K. — over 3,000 new homes.

We’ll kick start the construction of another 1,000 homes by 2020 and aim to have delivered 10,000 homes by 2025.

First and foremost we’re focused on building homes. We’re already funding the build of thousands of new houses across the country. We’ll kick start the construction of another 1,000 homes by 2020 and aim to have delivered 10,000 homes by 2025.

Funding is one part of the puzzle, but the role of HGP goes beyond simply investing money. It seeks to be a genuine partner. We’re developing long-term relationships with smaller housebuilders, helping them to grow their businesses and the number of homes they are able to build across Britain. In fact, over the last 12 months our senior adviser panel of housing experts from across the U.K. has delivered more than 1,000 hours of free mentoring to small housebuilders. We all benefit when these firms can overcome those initial entry barriers, establish themselves in the industry and grow.

Addressing systemic challenges in the housing industry

It’s clear through the conversations we have with U.K. housebuilders that they face challenges at all stages of the development process.

A fundamental issue is the supply of skilled labor. I’m meeting with more and more of our partners who are looking to address this by employing apprentices. Many have formed connections with their local colleges and education centers, and are actively encouraging young people into the sector. Getting youngsters involved and engaged in housing helps create a pipeline of future leaders and also brings in a diverse range of innovative thinking.

This is where the partnership can make the most impact. By investing in companies across the housing supply chain, we can help firms employ more people, develop specialist skills and create more opportunities in the future.

We also lobby for crucial change across the industry and drive financial innovation in the sector. The determination of planning permissions, alongside the growing number of consented conditions to satisfy ahead of starting work on-site is a particular area of concern for housebuilders.

It’s clear through the conversations we have with U.K. housebuilders that they face challenges at all stages of the development process.

This complex and often difficult process limits their ability to grow their businesses and, in turn, increase the supply of new homes to the U.K. market. We are working hard with our partners to understand the key issues within the U.K. planning system and identify what can be done to address them. Alongside this, we are also looking at how we can support developers to introduce Modern Methods of Construction into their building processes.

Finding new solutions to the challenge of a skills and labor shortage, alongside the need to increase the speed of production and develop more energy-efficient homes will be key to the future success of the industry.

New solutions to housing challenges

We’re often asked ‘what comes next?’ There is so much innovation and development in housing at the moment and it’s evolving quickly. At the moment we are seeing a strong focus on Modern Methods of Construction.

What’s fascinating about this type of production is how efficient it is to produce units in a controlled environment — an environment that crucially, is weather proof. This could be a real game changer in the U.K.

What’s clear though is that the U.K.’s housing challenges cannot be solved in isolation. Genuine collaboration, both across the industry and in partnership with the U.K. government, will be crucial in driving further innovation and overcoming the challenges that the industry faces.

By ANDY HULME

Source: Politico

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Brexit weighing on UK housing market outlook – RICS

The outlook for the UK housing market darkened in August as uncertainty about Brexit takes its toll, according to the latest survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors.

The net balance of surveyors reporting that house prices have risen over the last three months increased to -4 in August from -9 in July, coming in ahead of expectations for a reading of -10.

However, Brexit-related uncertainty dented the outlook, with the near-term sales expectations net balance falling to -23 from -4, while the near-term prices expectations net balance declined to -24 from -13.

RICS chief economist Simon Rubinsohn said: “It is hard to get away from the shadow being cast over the housing market by the seemingly never-ending Brexit saga. Indeed uncertainty is a theme that respondents continue to highlight as a negative influence on sentiment in survey after survey.”

Capital Economic economist Hansen Lu said: “In all, today’s data support our view that there will be no recovery in transactions or house price growth before the end of the year. We expect that to happen whatever the Brexit outcome, although a no-deal exit could lead to a sharp fall in housing transactions.”

By Michele Maatouk

Source: Sharecast

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‘Record’ number of landlords to leave the market

A record proportion of landlords are planning to sell rental property in the next 12 months as their profitability has fallen for the third successive quarter, according to research.

Research firm BVA BDRC’s Q2 Landlords Panel report, seen by FTAdviser, found more than a quarter (26 per cent) of landlords were planning to sell at least one property from their portfolio in the next year.

According to the report, this was up 8 per cent from the tally measured in the first quarter of this year, three times higher than at the start of 2015 (9 per cent) and the highest level of planned sales the report had ever measured (since 2006).

On top of this, out of the 738 landlords polled in June, just one in seven intended to purchase additional property over the next year.

The most commonly cited reason for wanting to divest property was that it was no longer financially viable or profitable, followed by an increasing burden of legislation alongside “too much hassle/stress for too little return”.

The report also found that net profitability for landlords had fallen for three successive quarters — the first time since tracking began in 2006.

Although net profitability remained high at 80 per cent, this was down from 81 per cent in Q1 of this year, from 84 per cent at the end of 2018 and from 85 per cent in Q3 2018.

This decline was partly down to a fall in rental yields which, according to the report, fell to 5.5 per cent in Q2 — the lowest in nine years. Landlords managing houses of multiple occupancy derived the highest average yield alongside student properties.

But profitability has also been affected by tax and legislative changes which have hit the buy-to-let sector over recent years.

An additional 3 per cent stamp duty surcharge, introduced in April 2016, was closely followed by the abolition of mortgage interest tax relief for landlords.

The changes to mortgage relief have been phased into the system since April 2017, but by April 2020 the relief will be limited to the basic rate of tax, currently 20 per cent.

Consumer site Which predicted landlords’ incomes could drop by up to 57 per cent due to the changes.

Since the changes, purchasing a buy-to-let property through a limited company has become more than twice as popular as buying as an individual as it is seen to be more tax efficient.

Landlords took a further hit when a shake up of rules by the Prudential Regulation Authority meant buy-to-let borrowers were now subject to more stringent affordability testing.

The government has since announced a proposed abolition of Section 21 orders — so-called ‘no-fault eviction orders — and has banned all tenant fees, meaning estate agents now charge landlords for the entire cost of letting agreements.

Joanna Leyden, director at Monument Financial, said: “The increased regulation for landlords is likely to be a driving factor, although we are still seeing people buying property as an investment.

“It’s possible too that falling property prices in London have made some decide to increase the diversification of their investment portfolio and reduce their exposure to real estate.”

Shaun Church, director at Private Finance, said the number of landlords selling up was a “trend that will continue”.

He thought there were fewer buy-to-let landlords coming into the market and that those within it will looked to move properties into limited companies.

He added: “I think the people coming out the market will be those ‘accidental landlords’. And I do think it will continue as it’s not going to get any better.

“The market has definitely fallen, for us anyway. We’re not doing very many of buy-to-let purchases at all.”

But Craig McKinlay, new business director at Kensington Mortgages, said although there had been many government imposed changes over the last few years, there was still room to be successful in the buy-to-let space.

He said: “The remortgage market remains strong and limited companies are going from strength to strength.

“Brokers and landlords who focus on the right areas can still be successful and access some of the lowest rates ever seen.”

By Imogen Tew

Source: FT Adviser

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UK housing market shows some signs of recovery – RICS survey

UK housing market showed tentative signs of recovery in June as interest among buyers rose for the first time since shortly after the 2016 Brexit referendum and sales also staged a rare increase, a survey showed on Thursday.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) house price measure – the difference between members reporting price rises and falls – improved to -1, the strongest reading since August last year, from a revised -9 in May.

The reading was stronger than a median forecast of -12 in a Reuters poll of economists and RICS said it pointed to flat property prices over the next two quarters.

Prices in London and the south east of England continued to fall but rose across the rest of the country.

Britain’s housing market slowed sharply after voters decided to leave the European Union more than three years ago, but several indicators have suggested a stabilisation in recent months.

“The latest data provides further evidence of the sales market settling down,” Simon Rubinsohn, RICS chief economist, said in a statement.

“But I don’t get the impression from the insight provided by contributors that this is fuelling hope of a significantly more active market going forward. Many of the factors that have provided a challenge during the first half of the year remain unresolved.”

EU leaders in April delayed Britain’s deadline for the leaving the bloc until the end of October and investors are increasingly worried at the lack of clarity.

Both contenders to become Britain’s next prime minister have said they are prepared for a no-deal Brexit if necessary.

RICS said its survey showed new buyer interest rose for the first time since November 2016 and newly agreed sales edged into positive territory for the first time in 28 months.

There were also signs that sellers were feeling more confident — RICS’ new instructions indicator turned positive for the first time in a year.

Reporting by William Schomberg, editing by Andy Bruce

Source: Yahoo Finance UK

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UK house prices surge 5.7 per cent in June

UK house prices shrank by 0.3 per cent in June compared to the previous month, according to data released today.

But the growth rate rocketed 5.7 per cent on an annual basis last month, according to Halifax’s latest house price index, to take the average UK house price to £237,110.

That compares to May’s £237,837, when Halifax recorded an annual growth rate of 5.2 per cent – the best in two years until today’s figures.

Russell Galley, managing director of Halifax, said: “This extends the largely flat trend we’ve seen over recent months.

“More generally the housing market is displaying a reasonable degree of resilience in the face of political and economic uncertainty.

“Recent industry figures show demand looking slightly more stable, with mortgage approvals ticking along just above the long-term average.”

However, he warned that a “major restraining factor” for the UK housing market was the lack of houses up for sale.

“With the ongoing lack of clarity around Brexit, people will be looking for more certainty in the coming months, both to encourage them to list their property and to create the confidence needed to encourage buyers,” Galley added.

“Of course, the likelihood of continued historically low mortgage rates will underpin prices in the near term.”

Halifax figures are a ‘complete outlier’
Howard Archer, chief economic adviser to the EY Item Club, dismissed Halifax’s data as a “complete outlier in annual terms”.

It compares to Nationwide’s annual growth rate of just 0.5 per cent in June and Office for National Statistics (ONS) data of 1.4 per cent growth for April.

“There are signs that housing market activity may have got a little help from the avoidance of a disruptive Brexit at the end of March, but the overall benefit looks to have been limited,” Archer said.

“Improved consumer purchasing power and robust employment growth has also recently been helpful for the housing market but this has recently shown some signs of levelling off.”

Meanwhile, former Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) chairman, north London estate agent Jeremy Leaf, also questioned the figures.

“It paints a confusing picture with the annual house price increase actually greater than it was last month while comparative figures from 12 months ago are also unreliable,” Leaf said.

Buyers ‘looking beyond Brexit’
Leaf added that Brexit uncertainty has softened UK house prices, with today’s figures likely to dampen buyers’ appetites as prices continue to fall.

However, he said that many buyers have stopped delaying purchases and are pushing ahead with house hunts even amid the political uncertainty hitting the market.

“We are finding that some buyers, including some investors, are looking beyond Brexit and political uncertainty and are prepared to go ahead if they can perceive value,” he said.

Brian Murphy, head of lending for Mortgage Advice Bureau, said: “The market trend continues to follow a similar direction of travel to the one that we’ve observed since the beginning of this year; those who need to move are doing so, regardless of politically-driven news headlines, and are far more likely to make the decision to purchase based on their own circumstances should the need dictate.

“The availability of competitive mortgage products is also providing many with support, as lenders remain very much ‘open for business’ with some repricing downwards of late in order to gain more traction in the market.”

What will UK house prices do after Brexit?
EY’s Archer predicted that even in the event of a Brexit deal, the UK’s prolonged departure from the bloc will hamper growth of UK house prices over 2019.

The accounting giant predicts prices to rise only around 1.5 per cent this year.

“Prolonged uncertainty will weigh down on the economy and hamper the housing market,” Archer said.

“Consumers may well be particularly cautious about committing to buying a house, especially as house prices are relatively expensive relative to incomes.”

While a lack of homes on the market and very low interest rates should prop up the market in the meantime, Archer warned the nature of Brexit will dramatically impact UK house prices.

With a deal, house prices could grow by around two per cent over 2020.

But in a no-deal Brexit, Archer warned house prices could “quickly drop” by as much as five per cent.

By Joe Curtis

Source: City AM

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UK housing market stuck in slow gear as Brexit weighs – Nationwide

British house price growth remained weak in June as uncertainty about Brexit hung over the market, mortgage lender Nationwide said on Tuesday.

House prices increased by 0.5% compared with a year ago, slowing slightly after a 0.6% rise in May but in line with the median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

At the time of the Brexit referendum in 2016, house prices were growing by about 5 percent a year, according to Nationwide’s measure.

In monthly terms, house prices in June edged up by 0.1%, a slightly smaller increase than the median forecast in the Reuters poll for a rise of 0.2%.

Nationwide’s data chimed with other housing indicators which have suggested that a weakening of the market seen in 2018 might have bottomed out as investors wait for Britain to resolve its Brexit crisis.

“While healthy labour market conditions and low borrowing costs will provide underlying support, uncertainty is likely to continue to act as a drag on sentiment and activity,” Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, said.

Price growth and transaction levels were likely to be little changed over the coming months, he said.

Britain is waiting for the ruling Conservative Party to choose its new leader who, as next prime minister, will attempt to strike a new Brexit deal with the European Union before an Oct. 31 deadline for the country’s departure from the bloc.

Nationwide’s data showed that prices in London fell for an eighth quarter in a row in the April-June period although the pace of decline moderated to 0.7% in annual terms from 3.8% in the previous quarter.

Prices in the capital were around 5% below the all-time highs seen in early 2017 and were about 50% above their levels in 2007, before the global financial crisis, Nationwide said.

Prices in Britain as a whole were only around 17% higher over the same period.

House prices in the second quarter rose most strongly in Northern Ireland and Wales, up by an annual 5.2 and 4.2% respectively.

Source: Yahoo News

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The housing market – and the Brexit backdrop

As an economist who has worked in the housing market for more than 15 years, I used to be frequently asked about what interest rates were likely to do.

I now tend to be asked about what Brexit will do. Anticipating interest rate changes a decade ago was not easy, as they were much more variable than they are now, but it was a lot easier than anticipating Brexit.

When I wrote our recent Spring/Summer Market Briefing, I began: “Despite the travails of Brexit, the Scottish housing market has continued to perform strongly…” I got an immediate response from a client saying, “Despite Brexit, ha, ha, ha!”

Obviously, my pro-Brexit client was intimating that people like me thought that Brexit would prove disastrous and were proving ourselves wrong with our own market analysis. But I did not say that – Rettie & Co does not have a position on Brexit. I said: “Despite the travails of Brexit.” It does not matter if you are pro or anti-Brexit, it is clear the painful and laborious process is clouding the market in uncertainty.

In such circumstances, you would expect economic activity to weaken and for this to have a knock-on effect on the housing market. However, the market so far this year has been resilient.

The data for the first quarter of 2019 highlighted that transactions and average prices across Scotland were broadly the same against the same period last year – not bad, given the market uncertainty.

This picture is true in both Edinburgh and Glasgow. In Aberdeen, where the housing market has been battered by the reduced price of oil, there was a bounce-back of 14 per cent in market activity, with average prices on a par with a year ago.

This strongly hints at a much sought-after stabilisation that Aberdeen estate agents have been yearning for. Dundee, by contrast, is fast-emerging as a standout housing location with average house prices 10 per cent up on a year ago, making it one of the strongest-performing markets in the whole of the UK. Elsewhere, areas in commuter hinterlands such as East and West Lothian in the East and West Dunbartonshire in the West have seen double-digit growth in transaction levels.

However, there are concerns. Residential Land & Building Transaction Tax (LBTT) revenue in the first quarter of 2019 was down nearly 6 per cent on the same period last year despite a rising number of returns.

The bulk (nearly three-quarters) of LBTT revenue is collected from the market above £325,000 (just 10 per cent of total sales). These statistics clearly signal a softening of the upper part of the market.

Experience from other economic slowdowns shows that it is the top end of the market that tends to get hit first and hardest; in fact, it is a clear economic bellwether.

As we argued in our recent annual briefing on LBTT, a concern for the Scottish Government is that its taxation strategy has been to shift more of the tax take onto a smaller number of payers.

This remains a dangerous course for a government potentially facing a budget blackhole over the next few years, as highlighted by the Scottish Fiscal Commission recently. In my view, on LBTT at least, the government has too many of its eggs in too small a basket. The effects of fiscal drag will likely push more eggs into this basket unless the Scottish Government acts to make at least an inflationary adjustment to the bands on which LBTT is paid. With the interminable Conservative leadership contest taking over the front pages and the fact that we can all pour through passport control without much fuss this summer, perhaps the market is shrugging off Brexit for at least a little while.

But it will be back and it will certainly test market resilience later this year. And I still do not have an answer yet as to what it will do.

By John Boyle

Source: Scotsman

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The Bank of Mum and Dad lends more to loved ones this year

The Bank of Mum and Dad (BoMaD) has lent more this year, as family and friends spend an average £6,000 more than in 2018 to help loved ones onto the housing ladder.

The report from FTSE100 financial services group Legal & General and Cebr showed that BoMaD lenders will be more generous this year than ever before, as the average contribution increases to £24,100 – more than £6,000 more than the average contribution last year of £18,000.

This rise is double the average house price increase of £3,000 in the year to March 2019.

Nigel Wilson, group chief executive at Legal & General, said: “The Bank of Mum and Dad continues to be the ‘iceberg’ mortgage lender beneath the surface of our housing market – all but invisible yet exerting a massive influence, funding purchases across the country and helping people to defy the economics of affordability and realise their housing dreams.

“This year, parents or grandparents, family or friends are set to lend thousands more to fund nearly one in five house purchases.

“The Bank of Mum and Dad is a symptom of Britain’s broken housing market and it goes far beyond millennials relying on their parents as more older borrowers look to family and friends for financial support.

“Our reliance on ‘BoMaD’ funding is an increasingly skewed facet of the UK housing market. It’s dependency, not generosity.”

However, amidst a reduction in transaction volumes across the UK housing market, BoMaD will fund nearly 20% fewer property purchases than in 2018.

The jump in BoMaD loan sizes has increased total lending for the Bank of Mum and Dad by 10% this year – up to £6.3bn from £5.7bn in 2018. As a result, BoMaD is now the 11th largest mortgage lender in the UK.

Despite the reduction in transaction volumes, BoMaD will still continue to support thousands of buyers across the country in 2019 – involved in more than a quarter of a million (259,400) property purchases.

This is down from 316,600 transactions last year, but it still amounts to nearly one in five (19%) transactions in the UK mortgage market.

In total, BoMaD will help buyers to purchase property worth nearly £70bn this year. In some parts of the UK, there has been an even bigger rise in contributions from family or friends.

In the North West, the average BoMaD ‘loan’ has nearly doubled from £12,900 to more than £24,000, while the South West saw the average contribution rise by over £10,000 to £29,700.

This shift in loan size could be because BoMaD lenders are supporting family and friends to purchase larger properties.

Three-bedroom houses or flats were the most commonly purchased properties in 2019 (44%), and well over a third (38%) have helped family or friends to buy a two-bedroom property. Some 15% of lenders were even helping loved ones to purchase properties with four or more bedrooms.

Millennials (those aged 35 and under) continue to rely on parents the most, with 62% needing financial support from their parents or other family members and friends. However, BoMaD is helping more than just young first-time buyers.

More than a fifth (22%) of people aged 45 to 54 have received financial assistance from BoMaD to purchase their latest property.

Around 7% of over-55s have also received help from family or friends to buy their most recent home. This support for older buyers is expected to double, with 14% of Britain’s over-55s expecting assistance from BoMaD for a future house purchase.

Parents are expected to make the biggest contribution to family members in 2019 and will be responsible for £4.4bn of lending, while grandparents will lend £657m.

Other family members and friends will help more than 51,000 buyers by lending £1.2bn to help loved ones buy a home.

Most BoMaD lenders are using cash savings (53%), but this year unlocking housing wealth through equity release has jumped to become the third largest source of funds (16%).

More than a third (35%) of prospective buyers who are planning to purchase a home in the next five years expect to rely on financial support from their family.

Over three-quarters (77%) of those receiving support in 2019 are home movers, not first-time buyers, compared to less than two-thirds (62%) of home movers in 2018.

Will Hale, chief executive of equity release adviser Key, added: “This report clearly highlights that intergenerational giving is alive and well in the UK today.

Online mortgage broker Trussle has found more than half (58%) of under 35s still live with their parents as they struggle to get onto the property ladder.

Ishaan Malhi, its chief executive and founder, said: “The fact that so many young people can’t afford to move out of their parents’ homes in fear of not being able to get onto the property ladder is alarming.”

By Michael Lloyd

Source: Mortgage Introducer

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Brexit delay gives some relief to UK housing market – RICS

Britain’s Brexit-battered housing market steadied in May and a measure of prices improved as the delay in the country’s European Union exit gave some encouragement to buyers, a survey showed on Thursday.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) house price measure – the difference between members reporting price rises and falls – improved to -10 from -22 in April.

That was its highest reading since October and was stronger than the median forecast of -21 in a Reuters poll of economists.

There were also signs of improvement in agreed sales and new instructions, but there was little sign of a pickup in transactions any time soon, RICS said.

“Much of the anecdotal insight provided by respondents is still quite cautious, reflecting concerns about both the underlying political and economic climate,” said Simon Rubinsohn, RICS’ chief economist.

EU leaders in April granted Britain a delay to its deadline for the leaving the bloc until the end of October.

Britain’s housing market has slowed sharply since the Brexit referendum in June 2016 when RICS’ house price measure stood at +19. But there have been signs in recent months that the market might be bottoming out.

RICS, which said its price index typically has a six-month lead over other measures of house price inflation, said southeast England showed the weakest sentiment on price movements while London appeared to have bounced back a little.

Reporting by William Schomberg

Source: UK Reuters

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The property market set for a bounceback in the summer

The property market is on track for an upturn in house sale prices this summer, with a 9% surge in average prices in the three months between May and August, reallymoving has predicted in its House Price Forecast.

As homebuyers register for quotes for homemove services on the site typically 12 weeks before their purchase completes, providing data on the purchase price agreed, reallymoving said it can provide an accurate three-month property price forecast before those deals complete three months later.

Rob Houghton, chief executive of reallymoving, said: “Prices agreed this spring will show in Land Registry data in the summer, yet our customers registering for home move services as soon as their deal is agreed are giving us unique insight into what lies ahead for the housing market.

“Our forecasts suggest that sellers are growing tired of the ‘wait and see’ approach and once the Brexit deadline passed at the end of March, with no further clarification, sellers decided to press ahead with their move.

“This new buyer demand and a continued shortage of quality housing stock is on course to drive strong price growth between May and August, with particular surges in regions benefiting from strong demand such as the North East and the South West, where affordability remains attractive and wages are rising.

“Annually, average UK prices have been falling since the start of the year but in June we can expect prices to see a return to positive growth with a rise of 1% year-on-year, followed by 0% change in July.

“This suggests that a strong market performance over the spring will see prices make up the value lost in the first part of 2019 and are set to recover to 2018 levels this summer.

“There is considerable pent up demand in the market following three years of uncertainty and with many doubting that Brexit will be resolved any time soon, people are increasingly making the decision to move on regardless.”

Historically, reallymoving’s data has closely tracked the Land Registry’s Price Paid data, published retrospectively.

Average UK property prices fell steadily between January and April 2019 as Brexit uncertainty gripped the market, held-back consumer confidence and curtailed transaction levels.

But despite a slow start, the spring market has shown a good deal of resilience, with prices agreed during the past few weeks forecast to deliver a surge in average values of 6% between May and June 2019, followed by a further 3% increase in August.

The market is following a similar pattern to spring/summer 2018, when the Land Registry recorded price rises of 4.4% between May and August 2018.

But this year, the report said greater pent up demand and growing impatience with the Brexit process has resulted in a more pronounced increase in house prices during the summer period.

Annually, prices have been consistently lower than the previous year between January and May 2019. A notable annual drop of 6% in value in May showed this year the spring market has accelerated later than in 2018, as the traditionally busy spring sales window was delayed by Brexit uncertainty.

However, an increase in market activity later in the spring means annual price changes are forecast to stabilise, with 1% growth expected in June, followed by no change in July and -1% in August 2019.

Of the 12 regions of the UK analysed, 11 are forecast to see prices rise during the three months to August, with the strongest gains in the North East (20%), the East of England and the South West (12%).

The capital is no exception and although growth is more subdued than in other parts of the country, London is still forecast to see prices rise by 3% over the summer period.

Meanwhile, Scotland is the only region of the UK expected to see property price falls, with a 3% drop anticipated between May and August.

In the South West prices have been fairly flat since the start of the year but are on course for a 8% increase in June, followed by a further 4% rise in August, as a burst in market activity in the spring translates to summer completions.

By Michael Lloyd

Source: Mortgage Introducer