UK house prices grew two per cent year on year for September, according to new figures released today, but London house prices declined.
Homes in the capital fell by less than one per cent compared to the same period of 2017, Nationwide reported today, against a fairly stable picture for the whole of the UK.
House prices also grew 0.3 per cent from August to September to sell for an average of £214,922.
London house prices fell 0.7 per cent year-on-year to £468,544 for September and the third quarter, less steep a drop than the 1.9 per cent fall they experienced in the previous quarter, Nationwide said.
Still, they are only three per cent below their early 2017 all-time high, and still 50 per cent more expensive than they were in 2007.
Overall price growth slowed in the south of England to 0.3 per cent for the three months to September, while the north – where house prices are half as expensive – saw an average drop of 1.7 per cent for the quarter.
However, other areas saw homes grow in value, with Yorkshire & Humberside exhibiting 5.8 per cent annual growth and east Midlands prices up 4.8 per cent.
Nationwide’s chief economist, Robert Gardner, said the low overall rate of growth demonstrated little change in the balance between supply and demand.
“Looking further ahead, much will depend on how broader economic conditions evolve, especially in the labour market, but also with respect to interest rates,” he added.
“Subdued economic activity and ongoing pressure on household budgets is likely to continue to exert a modest drag on housing market activity and house price growth this year, though borrowing costs are likely to remain low.”
England had the slowest rate of annual growth at 1.4 per cent for the quarter, with Northern Ireland up 4.3 per cent, and both Scotland and Wales’ growth rates slowing, from 3.1 per cent in 2017 to 2.1 per cent for 2018 in Scotland and down slightly to 3.3 per cent in Wales.
Overall Nationwide predicts UK house prices to grow by one per cent for the whole of 2018.
Howard Archer, chief economic advisor to the EY Item Club, said: “We suspect that the housing market will be relatively lacklustre over the coming months – although there are varying performances across regions with the overall national picture dragged down by the poor performance in London and parts of the south east.
“Consequently, we expect overall house price gains across the UK over 2018 will be limited to 2.0 per cent on the Nationwide’s measure. At this stage, we expect a rise of around 2.5 per cent in 2019.”
Here’s how quarterly growth looked across the UK:
|Annual percentage change this quarter||Annual percentage change last quarter|
|Yorks & H’side||£160,263||5.8 per cent||2.1 per cent|
|East Midlands||£186,414||4.8 per cent||4.4 per cent|
|N Ireland||£139,374||4.3 per cent||2.1 per cent|
|West Midlands||£190,607||4.1 per cent||4.3 per cent|
|North West||£162,596||4.1 per cent||3.0 per cent|
|Wales||£154,881||3.3%||4.0 per cent|
|East Anglia||£228,690||3.0 per cent||2.5%|
|Scotland||£149,161||2.1 per cent||3.1 per cent|
|South west||£245,434||1.9 per cent||2.4 per cent|
|Outer SE||£279,858||0.8 per cent||2.5 per cent|
|Outer Met||£364,309||-0.3 per cent||0.9 per cent|
|London||£468,544||-0.7 per cent||-1.9 per cent|
|North||£125,085||-1.7 per cent||1.6 per cent|
|UK||£216,103||2.1 per cent||2.2 per cent|
Source: City A.M.